Sunday, December 18, 2011

EOD Update

I was hoping the week would have ended with some clarity but unfortunately that was not the case. One thing is for sure, the waves continue to overlap.

Going into Pre-Market Friday, my 15 min alternate count had much potential. However, by the end of the day, the 4-1 overlap was very apparent and basically voided that option.

SPX - 30 Min - Primary
The primary count here views the structure as a completed wave (b) correction. However, the wave structure does not necessarily look like the beginnings of an impulse wave up for  wave (c) either.

Therefore I'm leaving room for one more leg down to hit the lower channel trendline and the ascending trendline that connects the 10/4 and 11/25 lows. If that happens, I'm thinking this would count as a triple zigzag.

Take a look at the 15 min alternate count below though. This is the first real bearish potential I have seen in a bit.

SPX - 15 Min - Alternate

Again, the 4-1 overlap as mentioned above voided the previous count I presented. However, this now looks like something potentially more bearish with a triple nested 1-2 down.

If this option were to play out, I would expect the lower ascending trendline would break at approximately 1190-1200.

SPX - Daily
1200 should be the level to watch should more selling resume next week. The bulls need to defend this level and the bears need to break it.

I'll also be watching the daily MACD trendline.

Triangle Option
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