Thursday, September 27, 2012

9/27/12 - EOD Update

15 Min 
 So far the double zigzag looks complete with today's bounce helping to confirm that. However, the purple option is still on the table. If the bears can't hold the horizontal line a iv-i overlap will occur.

60 Min

The bigger picture is that wave 5 is in progress. Targets are presented with the Fib extensions. The market is still rising in the channel.

The question after that is does this represent wave 5 of C or 3?

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

9/26/12 - EOD Update

15 Min

Earlier today I tweeted the targets for wave c of Y. So far all looks good.

I added option purple with the noted caveat just in case C started on 9/21.

The first close under the 20 day SMA since the end of Aug.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

9/25/12 - EOD Update

No go on the triangle. Orange rules the count.

15 Min 
Haven't looked at the squiggles but so far y=w so far and wave c of y looks like it may have put in five waves. We'll see.

60 Min 

Monday, September 24, 2012

9/24/12 - EOD Update

60 Min 

Looking like a triangle. MACD is trying to cross up.

You never know though. The orange double zigzag is still in play so we'll see.

Friday, September 21, 2012

9/21/12 - EOD Update

60 Min

Green or orange. Both are looking for the same thing near term.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

9/20/12 - EOD Update

10 Min

I like this as the best near term option, a nice double zigzag off the 9/14 high. Whether this represents the completion of another wave 4 or just a larger degree wave W, we should expect at least a bounce to 1465-1469.

If it is a larger degree wave X, 1465-1469 becomes the target. However, a possible nested 1-2 i-ii up off the day's low may have formed, setting up a iii of 3 gap and go tomorrow morning to challenge the 1473 high in a wave 5.

Lets see what the hourly MACD can pull off here.

60 Min
Back on July 11th, I first proposed the potential for a leading diagonal developing and somewhere along the way abandoned it when I didn't see a steep retrace out of the diagonal as is typical.

Because I'm still struggling to make sense of the overall count here, I re-examined this LD once again. It turns out wave B did retrace wave A 38.2%. Though it is small, it is an acceptable Fib retrace target.

So if strictly counting this as a corrective wave structure, this is what I think could be a viable count. Note the Fib extension targets for wave C.

Keep in mind wave A can easily be replaced with 1, wave B replaced with 2 and C with 3. So you get the picture.

The impulse count option here would be ruled out if a retracement were to occur back into wave A/1 orthodox top at 1380.39.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

9/19/12 - EOD Update

5 Min
Near term choices. Watching for yet another potential triangle up here.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

9/18/12 - EOD Update

5 Min
 Option black or option red?

60 Min
This favors option black. We'll see.

Monday, September 17, 2012

9/17/12 - EOD Update

5 Min 

This is all I have for today.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

9/13/12 - EOD Update

The triangle played out as expected yesterday. Not only did the market target 1440-1450, it decided climb an additional 10 points from the triangle thrust target.

Now the question is what does all this represent? I'm still struggling to find this as an impulsive structure so we shall see if the count below finally completes.

Did Intermediate (B) finally complete? Should one fight the Fed? Hmm...

Lets keep an eye on this potentially long term Ending Diagonal

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

9/12/12 - EOD Update

10 Min 

Keeping it simple. Last night I mentioned the similarity in the consolidation pattern right before Draghi's announcement. Same appears to be working out here. This was the purple option I presented last night.

Sure looks like a triangle. We'll see. Bennie will provide the catalyst for the breakout or the failure.

Triangles usually mark the end of a wave structure so should this break up higher, 1445-1450 are some targets. This coincides with the TL connecting the 6/19 and 8/21 reaction highs.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

9/11/12 - EOD Update

60 Min 
The market appears to be consolidating up here again just like it did near the end of August right before Draghi's announcement. The market may be doing the same in preparation for the Feds but on a smaller scale.

I added a few more color options since this corrective looking choppiness makes it more challenging. The best thing one can do is stay nimble and trade the range and trade the C and 3 setups.

Here is what I was tweeting earlier in the day with the proposed triangle. This lines up with the purple option on the 60 min chart at top.

Here's a 1 min view of what would go with the gray option on the 60 min chart at top.

Monday, September 10, 2012

9/10/12- EOD Update

60 Min 

As I mentioned last week, we should expect the SPX to pullback into its Bollinger Band sooner than later and today is just what it did.

Per the green and red options we may have seen a top in this wave structure, granted red gives one more shot towards the highs once wave c red is complete.

Lets see if the market wants to target 1396 from here.

Friday, September 7, 2012

9/7/12 - EOD Update

60 Min
 A decent reaction to a poor jobs #. Perhaps the upper TL is the target. I have that near 1445. The green count is nearly complete. The red count is tracking the green's final move here as well to complete wave b.

A 2nd close outside the daily BB so a pullback into the bands should be expected sooner than later. A daily MACD bull cross.

 Lets see what happens at 1440.

Note the DOW, RUT and TRANS are all lagging SPX.

Transports - Daily

DJI - Daily

RUT - Daily

Thursday, September 6, 2012

9/6/12 - EOD Update

60 Min 
Draghi set the green option on fire today. Lets see if it is gunning for the upper trend line. The Fib markers are wave v extensions.

Note the red option is still a possibility.

9/6/12 - Pre Market [6:38 AM Update]

[6:38 AM Update]

60 Min
Green is the option of choice. Black and red are completely out if 1426.68 is taken out.

Pre Market
As I mentioned yesterday, Draghi would be the catalyst. So far it is a move out of the descending triangle.

So long as this remains, I expect the green count to play out for the cash count (SPX).

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

A Long Term Count Update

I like this view. Too bad it takes so long to confirm things. Just some food for thought.

9/5/12 - EOD Update [10:35 PM Update]

[10:35 PM Update] 

60 Min
I added more labels for the red option to show how a drop to 1376 would still favor one more push to a new high over 1427. We'll see which option plays out.

 EOD Update
60 Min
 Another uneventful day. The descending triangle is still in play but I have added back a red option that highlights the potential combination corrective that began on 8/23. This combo corrective may either represent wave ii (black option) or wave b (red option).

Options black and red are looking for some downside tomorrow whereas option green is looking for a pop out of the tri.

Looks like Draghi will be the catalyst for tomorrow.

A fourth close below the 20 day SMA with the bands tightening up.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

9/4/12 - EOD Update

60 Min 
As I posted last Friday, the black and red counts were favored, which implied some near term downside action. I removed the red option since it became very similar to green once it found support at 1297.

The bounce at 1397 provided more weight to the descending triangle pattern that the green option above represents.

We'll see if this is the case very soon. If not, the head and shoulders pattern is looming plus the market closed below the 20 day SMA once again. I'm still watching the MACD trendline as well to provide a clue as to whether wave v of  c of Y is underway.