Thursday, September 20, 2012

9/20/12 - EOD Update

10 Min

I like this as the best near term option, a nice double zigzag off the 9/14 high. Whether this represents the completion of another wave 4 or just a larger degree wave W, we should expect at least a bounce to 1465-1469.

If it is a larger degree wave X, 1465-1469 becomes the target. However, a possible nested 1-2 i-ii up off the day's low may have formed, setting up a iii of 3 gap and go tomorrow morning to challenge the 1473 high in a wave 5.

Lets see what the hourly MACD can pull off here.

60 Min
Back on July 11th, I first proposed the potential for a leading diagonal developing and somewhere along the way abandoned it when I didn't see a steep retrace out of the diagonal as is typical.

Because I'm still struggling to make sense of the overall count here, I re-examined this LD once again. It turns out wave B did retrace wave A 38.2%. Though it is small, it is an acceptable Fib retrace target.

So if strictly counting this as a corrective wave structure, this is what I think could be a viable count. Note the Fib extension targets for wave C.

Keep in mind wave A can easily be replaced with 1, wave B replaced with 2 and C with 3. So you get the picture.

The impulse count option here would be ruled out if a retracement were to occur back into wave A/1 orthodox top at 1380.39.


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