Friday, October 31, 2014

10/31/14 - AM Update

[8:55 AM] - Breakdown out of the little ED. We'll see.

8:55 AM - 5 Min 

[7:32 AM] - Taking a stab short here. Why not. *Corrected the blue labels for another extension option.

7:32 -5 Min 

[7:08 AM] - We'll see if it tries to tag 2019ish.

7:08 AM - 5 Min

[5:30 AM-Pre Market] - As I posted yesterday, the market is most likely extending and may shoot for 2010-2020 before a larger pullback. So far ES is backing that assertion.

5:30 AM - ES

Thursday, October 30, 2014

10/30/14 - EOD Update

2:36 PM: Here is a look at ES with an extended fifth.


EOD Update: As I posted yesterday, if the bears failed to break 1968, I wouldn't be surprised if the market continues to track up the channel, which it is now doing.  I am also looking at additional extension potentials, the new green alternate and a new potential triangle.

The market may not give those waiting to buy the right shoulder a chance either. It has pushed thru all the near term pivot points and may just challenge 2010-2020 before a larger pullback so we'll have to see.

5 Min 
60 Min

10/30/14 - AM Update

[10:59 AM] - I remove the wave [b bounce as an option. Earlier I tweeted the possibility of a nested 1-2 and yesterday the possibility of the market just climbing up the channel. So far this appears to be the case. The market may be extending here.

10:59 AM - 5 Min 

[7:43 AM] -  Possible triangle wave [b
7:43 AM - 1 Min

[6:55 AM] - Possible rising wedge for wave [b.

6:55 AM - 1 Min 

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

10/29/14 - EOD Update

EOD Update :  Did the market finally complete five waves up? Will a right shoulder form and if so, where will it terminate within the 1925-1975 zone?

The 50 DMA may be a good target. It also corresponds with wave [c = [a.

Let's see if the bears can break 1968 because if they don't, I won't be surprised if the wave extends and tracks up the channel.

5 Min 

60 Min 

10/29/14 - AM Update

[12:23 PM] - Keepin an eye out for a potential wave [b tri.

12:23 PM - 5 Min 

[11:45 AM] - We'll see if there will be a wave [c down. Bulls may respect the middle of the channel.

11:45 AM - 5 Min 

[7:53 AM] - We'll see if it is corrective (wxy) or a start of a new impulse (1,2,3...) down. y=w at 1981
7:53 AM - 1 Min 

[7:14 AM] - We will see where this really goes in about 4 hrs.

7:14 AM

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

10/28/14 - EOD Update

Still looking for the completion of five waves up.

Wondering if the intersection on the daily chart may provide a clue at 1991.

I'm out of the trade from yesterday's dip. Would like to see the completion of five and then a dip to perhaps the 50 DMA to form the right shoulder. We'll see and adjust accordingly.

5 Min 


10/28/14 - AM Update

[12:34 PM] - An update on the squiggles. The red count is out.

12:34 PM - 5 Min 

[8:15 AM] - I removed some of the alternates from yesterday and believe this is the best squiggle count at the moment. The red count is on life support.

8:15 AM - 5 Min 

Monday, October 27, 2014

10/27/14 - EOD Update

As I tweeted earlier today, many options on the table up here. For now, the preferred is a triangle is playing out for wave -iv.

The other two options are a double zigzag (green) and a last ditch red count option.

5 Min 

10/27/14 - AM Update

[12:23 PM] - Too many options now so have to wait and see. Added the green option. Though I have it as [c, probably should be a wave [y if it gets there.

12:23 PM - 5 Min 

[11:32 AM] - If prices don't collapse here, that triangle is looking pretty good with a fairly complex wave c.

11:32 AM-  5 Min

[8:39 AM] - A new count for the bears so bulls need to take out 1970 and/or 1977 just to be sure. Wave [c of -ii red is an ED with a truncated fifth.

8:39 AM - 5 Min 

[7:20 AM] - We'll see if wave -iv turned into a flat or - v is complete.

7:20 AM - 1 Min 

7:20 AM - 5 Min 

Friday, October 24, 2014

10/24/14 - EOD Update

What a week for the bulls. They printed one large green candlestick following the previous week's hammer candle.

I think the bulls are looking to complete five waves up right near 1970. I have relabeled my squiggles just a tad to make it easier, rather then listing several alternates. I basically have wave - ii as a running flat.

The bears are in danger of losing their nested 1-2 i-ii count. I'd say a challenge of the ATH is in order especially if the 50 DMA can be recaptured. Daily MACD has also been confirmed on the cross up.

5 Min 

60 Min 
 I don't think wave (4) is complete yet so there may be a flat forming as highlighted on the 60 min chart above. However, if wave (5) is underway, buying on a pullback of this current leg up won't hurt if you can capture the third wave to challenge the ATH or make a new ATH.

 Here is the daily for perspective

10/24/14 - AM Update

[6:49 AM] - A poke above yesterday's high may mean it is extending.

6;49 AM - 5 Min 

Thursday, October 23, 2014

10/23/14 - EOD Update

After a choppy yet sharp bounce, it looks like the market has now completed five waves up near the inv H/S target and just under the 50 DMA. As I posted yesterday, I wanted to see wave -v complete first, which it appears it has now done.

So lets see if there is another buying opportunity here as the right shoulder of a larger inv H/S is set. It can find support anywhere in between 1925- 1875.

5 Min 


10/23/14 - AM Update

[12:06 PM] - Looks good for five completed waves at a logical pivot point. Looking for another dip to buy.

12:06 PM - 5 Min 

[9:20 AM]- ED provided the road map and cash followed. Looking good so far. I rarely buy wave 4s but this one worked out.

9:20 AM - 5 Min 

[6:27 AM] - ES on track to print five waves up.

6:27 AM - ES

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

10/22/14 - EOD Update

Today's pullback looks like a wave -iv so far in cash and emini and may have set the right shoulder as mentioned last night at 1925.

We could see a back-n-forth here to consolidate some so will be looking for that in the 1925-1970 range. However, I'd like to see wave -v set first and then a pullback to consolidate within the range.

5 Min - SPX

60 Min - ES

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

10/21/14 - EOD Update

[7:22 PM] - ES Update
7:22 PM - ES

[EOD Update] -The bulls recaptured the 1926 level and have now wiped out the bear's impulse count potential.

The 5 min chart shows a wave -iii that could be extending to the top of the inv H/S target (1965-1970). If not, I have a feeling wave -v will get there, which would coincide with a backtest of the 50 DMA.

Note that a larger inv H/S may be in the works with the neckline set at 1970 with a right shoulder that may tag 1925.

The daily picture shows a MACD crossing up from oversold levels. Just a reminder of the range I have been talking about between 1825-2020. We could be seeing a test of the ATHs in what may be a flat or triangle in the works for wave (4).

5 Min 

60 Min 


10/21/14 - AM Update

[7:51 AM] - The bears lost their impulse count. The best they have now is a nested 1-2 down but I wouldn't put too much on that. The only other option at the moment is that this is a wave x or b bounce as I have presented on the daily should the market trade in the range (1925-2020) I previously mentioned.

7:51 AM -  5 Min 

[5:41 AM] - ES Update. Looks like wave -v is extending.

5:41 AM - ES

Monday, October 20, 2014

10/20/14 - EOD Update

[9:03 PM] - A look at ES tonight. Looks like five waves up completed.

[EOD Update] - Busy day at work for me today.

This is still a pretty choppy bounce that is just under the 200 DMA but I think wave -iii ended today for the blue count and still watching the inv H/S.  If the red count is still in play, it cannot breach the red horizontal line. This would be a good place for red to start red {v.

1926.03 is the level that bulls need to clear to invalidate the bears larger degree five wave count down.

5 Min 

60 Min 

10/20/14 - AM Update

[11:10 AM] - 
11:10 AM - 5 Min 

Friday, October 17, 2014

10/17/14 - EOD Update

[EOD Update]- What a wild week. Looks like the bulls are trying to make a stand here. We'll see if they can get it over the 200 DMA next week.

The bulls have the inv H/S in their favor, a possible completion of wave w or a for (4) and a weekly hammer candlestick right above the 50 WMA.

I'm not too confident of my blue count on the 5 min chart. It is quite choppy but if the bulls are to launch higher next week, we will have to assume there are a series of nested 1-2s in there.

As I posted on Weds, if the bulls manage to rally next week, I will still be prepared to trade the range between 1825-2020. We'll see.

As for the bears, they have been able to sell the rallies over past few weeks. Price is still contained within the descending channel (tho bulls are threatening to break out of it) for what may have completed wave {iv.

5 Min