10/24/14 - EOD Update

What a week for the bulls. They printed one large green candlestick following the previous week's hammer candle.

I think the bulls are looking to complete five waves up right near 1970. I have relabeled my squiggles just a tad to make it easier, rather then listing several alternates. I basically have wave - ii as a running flat.

The bears are in danger of losing their nested 1-2 i-ii count. I'd say a challenge of the ATH is in order especially if the 50 DMA can be recaptured. Daily MACD has also been confirmed on the cross up.

5 Min 

60 Min 

 I don't think wave (4) is complete yet so there may be a flat forming as highlighted on the 60 min chart above. However, if wave (5) is underway, buying on a pullback of this current leg up won't hurt if you can capture the third wave to challenge the ATH or make a new ATH.

Daily

 Here is the daily for perspective

Weekly

10/21/14 - EOD Update

[7:22 PM] - ES Update

7:22 PM - ES

[EOD Update] -The bulls recaptured the 1926 level and have now wiped out the bear's impulse count potential.

The 5 min chart shows a wave -iii that could be extending to the top of the inv H/S target (1965-1970). If not, I have a feeling wave -v will get there, which would coincide with a backtest of the 50 DMA.

Note that a larger inv H/S may be in the works with the neckline set at 1970 with a right shoulder that may tag 1925.

The daily picture shows a MACD crossing up from oversold levels. Just a reminder of the range I have been talking about between 1825-2020. We could be seeing a test of the ATHs in what may be a flat or triangle in the works for wave (4).

5 Min 

60 Min 

Daily

10/17/14 - EOD Update

[EOD Update]- What a wild week. Looks like the bulls are trying to make a stand here. We'll see if they can get it over the 200 DMA next week.

The bulls have the inv H/S in their favor, a possible completion of wave w or a for (4) and a weekly hammer candlestick right above the 50 WMA.

I'm not too confident of my blue count on the 5 min chart. It is quite choppy but if the bulls are to launch higher next week, we will have to assume there are a series of nested 1-2s in there.

As I posted on Weds, if the bulls manage to rally next week, I will still be prepared to trade the range between 1825-2020. We'll see.

As for the bears, they have been able to sell the rallies over past few weeks. Price is still contained within the descending channel (tho bulls are threatening to break out of it) for what may have completed wave {iv.

5 Min 

Daily

Weekly

10/15/14 - EOD Update

[1:56 PM Update] - Adding the 1 min chart. So far, looks like five waves up off the day's low.

1:56 PM - 1 Min

[EOD Update] - What a wild day. Nimble traders made some money.

The bear's formula of selling all rallies appears to be working over the past several days. If the bulls want to stop the bleeding, today was their chance to do so. 

I have several options (three) on the 5 min chart. 

Blue - Favors the bulls and calls for a completed zigzag. On the daily, this equates to a completed wave w or possible larger degree wave a of a larger flat or triangle for wave (4). 

Red - Continues to subdivide with an extended wave that will take on a 13 wave count from wave {ii red. 

Purple - A variation of red that also is looking for subdivisions down. 

5 Min 

On the 60 min below, the third leg down hit 1.618* the first nearly perfect before the bounce. Note the purple lines, so far this is only three waves down. The bulls need to clear 1926.03 to create an overlap into the first wave.

60 Min 

On the daily below, I tweeted earlier that a massive hammer may form and that is what the bulls created. Note that the retracement also has entered the territory of the previous wave 4, which I had labeled as a triangle.

So if the market is truly in a wave (4), price-wise, the level has been met. There is room to trade down to 1815 though.

Time-wise is another story. So what I'm speculating here, as posted in the AM, is that we may be trading in a range from 1825- 2020 over the next several weeks.

Wave (4) has the option to turn into a flat or a triangle, which would be a traders dream.

We'll see what the next few days brings. Sell the rallies or have we begun to trade in the 200 point range?