Wednesday, December 28, 2016

TSLA - 12/28/16 EOD Update

Forgot to update the TSLA chart. Looks like the wave extended a lil.

TSLA - 60 Min 

12/28/16 - EOD Update

Are the bears staging a break down from the ending diagonal that I have been tracking for some time or are we just seeing tax loss harvesting into the year end? If the latter, I'd keep an eye on the green alternate count (wave 'or iv'), which implies a larger ED in the works.

We'll see what the new year brings.
Daily

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

12/21/16 - EOD Update; SPX and TSLA

Still not much to add with the SPX ED. If the purple one is in play, wave 5 has thrown-over. If the blue ED is in play, wave iii is nearing the upper trendline. Something to note is the fact that the subwaves for wave 5 or iii looks impulsive at the moment. Subwaves within EDs are three wave structures so this may imply a little dip first and then one more leg higher.

SPX - Daily
 I don't post counts on individual shares often, but I've been watching TSLA and the bounce off double bottom sure looks impulsive.
TSLA - 60 Min

Thursday, December 15, 2016

12/15/16 - EOD Update

The SPX finally hit the upper trendline of the ending diagonal and has since retreated slightly from that line. The question now is does this complete the ending diagonal or is it just the completion of wave iii of the alternate count, which implies a larger ED in the works.

Daily

Daily - Close Up

Friday, December 9, 2016

12/9/16 - EOD Update

Still climbing towards the upper trend line. Note the slight adjustment I made to the wave labels on the Daily for the ending diagonal. It lines up with the longer term Weekly chart.

Daily

Weekly

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

12/7/16 - EOD Update

Not much to add. Just a reminder, wave (v) = .618*(i) at 2269 and equals (i) at 2285.

Daily

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

11/22/16 - EOD Update

A possible wave (v) target if wave (v) = .618*(i) at 2269.

Daily

Sunday, November 20, 2016

11/20/16 - Update

The primary count is that wave (v) is underway for wave (5) so long as the 11/4/16 low holds. If this is truly an ending diagonal for wave (5), note that wave (iv) was a throw-under. This implies that there is a potential for a wave (v) throw-over. We shall see. 


Daily

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

11/2/16 - EOD Update

There hasn't been much for me to add. Been waiting for this wave (iv) or ii to complete near the 200 day since Oct 10. Though my wave {c of (iv) or ii didn't quite make an impulsive move, the target level is certainly close near the 2100-2080 level. 

Daily
Another option that is still out there that I briefly mentioned in a Sept post is the potential of a larger flat that would target 1800ish. Still not gonna post that count or track it until/unless the 200 SMA is lost. 

Thursday, October 13, 2016

10/13/16 - AM Update

Got the wave -ii bounce I was looking for just shy by 5 points. Looks like wave -iii is now underway. Wave -iii = -i at 2104ish. 

Will continue to monitor the chop though if 2120 holds.  If so, I will label some alternate corrective options. Until then wave -iii is the primary count. 

60 Min

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

10/11/16 - EOD Update

Looks like that triangle for wave {b completed just a tad quicker. Either way, I was favoring the bias lower and now it appears to be in the works. If wave {c is in progress, wave -i completed today. Should follow up with a wave -ii bounce before heading lower.

Since all these waves are corrective, there are still several alternate options that would account for a chop higher from here. I won't list them yet unless 2170 is taken out. Until then, let's see if wave {c completes itself.

60 Min 

Monday, October 10, 2016

10/10/16 - EOD Update

Earlier today I posted the triangle I mentioned on my 10/4/16 post. However, I did not post the other triangle as it relates to my daily count, which I still slightly favor.

The red count below aligns with the bias lower to complete wave (iv) near the 200 day SMA. A move should be coming soon. We'll see which direction the market takes.

60 Min 

Daily

10/10/16

Here is the triangle I was referring to since the last post.

60 Min 

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

10/4/16

Been quite busy lately so haven't had much time to follow intraday. Overall I still don't see much by way of direction. Based on daily MACD and all the chop lately, I slightly favor a deeper pullback for (iv) or ii possibly towards the 200 day SMA.

A alternate view would be a potential triangle that started off the Aug high of this year.

Daily

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

9/21/16 - EOD Update

Is wave (iv) in? Or is wave ii in? Still no reason to label the larger flat I briefly mentioned on 9/10/16. 

I added the time level for the US Presidential Election day on11/8/16. Lets see what happens around that time if the market continues to rally with in the wedge. Could wave (v) be in progress and terminate right around that timeframe?

Daily

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Saturday, September 10, 2016

9/10/16

On my 60 min chart, I have noted for quite some time that the wave structure off the Feb 2016 low has only been three waves. Since my last post on 8/29/16, I introduced another option, which is the potential for an ending diagonal for wave (5).  * Note the other option is the much more bullish nested 1-2 i-ii for wave (5).

At the moment, the level to watch is 2111.05. If the market breaches this level, it will either i) suggest the ending diagonal is in play or ii) bring the nested 1-2 i-ii count into contention since the impulsive five-wave count for wave (5) would be out.

I won't label it yet but should a larger decline occur, which means revisiting the 1800 levels, a much larger flat may be in the works.

For now, I'd like to see what happens near/around the lower trendline first to see if the ED is in play.



Daily

Monday, August 29, 2016

8/29/16 - EOD Update

The market is still chopping it out. Since my 7/21 post, the options presented then still exist (nested 1-2, i-ii and the wave 4 flat).

One additional option I have added that plays with the choppy overlapping waves up is a potential ending diagonal for wave (5). We'll see.


Friday, August 19, 2016

8/19/16 - AM Update

Just got back from a nice long vacation. It appears the market has not decisively broken out in either direction since my last post.

It certainly hasn't confirmed that it topped yet since my last tweet when it looked like it printed five waves down. I thought it would have made a short-able candidate since 8/1 but it clearly took out that five wave structure.

Still waiting to see if five waves completed since the 6/27/16 low.

60 Min 

Monday, August 1, 2016

8/1/16 - AM Update

6:35 AM - We shall see if last Fri's poke higher capped wave v.

6:35 AM -60 Min 

Monday, July 25, 2016

7/25/16 - EOD Update

Its possible the market may not be done with its five wave structure after all. The action is starting to look like another triangle up top here for what would be wave iv. We'll see.


Thursday, July 21, 2016

7/21/16 - EOD Update

Looks like five completed waves off the 6/27 low. Lets see what type of a-b-c pullback comes from this. A 50% retracement of that wave structure targets approximately 2087.

However, keep in mind the overall wave structure off the 2/11/16 low so far looks like three waves up only (highlighted by the orange dotted line).

If this is a bullish wave off the 2/11/16, then it is implying a bullish nested 1-2, i-ii up. Wave i completed off the 6/27 low and now a wave ii pullback down the the approx target I mention in the 1st paragraph.

This bullish nested1-2, i-ii is invalidated though if the market retraces all of wave i at 1991.68. Am I convinced this is what is happening? I'm not sure at the moment. However, if it is, the weekly chart below implies that wave 3 of (5) of [3] up may be coming up next.

I do have a count for the bears though. It is on the weekly below. I posted this a week or so ago. It is the alternate red option, implying that a flat or expanded flat is in the works.

That option implies that the bears will come back out to play and challenge anywhere towards the lower end of the range at 1800.

So short term, a possible short play may work for a retrace anywhere near possibly the 20 day SMA with a stop above the all time high.

Then the next play, if bullish is buy it for a continued climb higher. Otherwise, wait and see if 1991.68 can be taken out to signal a much bigger bear play to come.

60 Min 

Weekly

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

7/19/16 - EOD Update

Not much to add since the last update other than sideways action. This leads me to believe that wave iii is complete. The sideways action would be wave iv.

60 Min

Thursday, July 14, 2016

7/14/16 - EOD Update

Looks like wave iii has almost completed five waves. Wave iii=i at 2190 so we'll see how wave {v of iii plays out. MACD continues to -ve diverge so we'll see if that confirms the end of wave iii.

60 Min 


Monday, July 11, 2016

7/11/16 - EOD Update

Providing an update to my long term chart tonight since the wave structure from the 5/15 high to 2/16 low looks like three waves down. From the 2/16 low to now, three more waves up. This would fit well for a flat, which would imply a large wave c down for wave (4).

This is an option. The primary is wave (5) up underway. However, leaving room for this possibility.

We'll see.


-------------
Looks like wave {iii of iii completed today or is nearing completion. We'll see if the -ve MACD divergence is confirmed. Wave iii = i at 2190.

The bulls need to defend 2108.71 in order to complete five waves for wave iii. Though the primary count is bullish, I actually took a small short position again on the chance that this pulls back to the 20/50 SMA or fails on a sustained break out over the 213x level.

60 Min 


Friday, July 8, 2016

7/8/16 - AM Update

The blue count option is implying a wave iii. All bear counts previously posted are out. The only other bear option is a larger flat should 213x hold. Will post that bear option later should the market fail to break thru 213x. 

60 Min 

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

7/6/16 - AM Update

7:10 AM - 1 min view

7:10 AM - 1 Min


7:05 AM - From an hourly standpoint, looks like five waves complete. Need to count the subwaves at 1 and/or 5 min degree.

7:05 AM - 60 Min 

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

7/5/16 - EOD Update

The market blasted much higher since my last post on June 29. I've been waiting to see the completion of wave i, which I think may now be the case.

It appears wave ii down is in progress and I'm hoping to buy. My targets are 2060-2050. We shall see.

60 Min

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

6/29/16 - EOD Update

The market blasted out of the gates higher today so I got my "few more points" and closed out my long position. The market continued to climb throughout the day and voided the five wave structure for the bears when 2050.37 was breached.

Last night I posted that should 2050.37 be taken out, the next best bear option is the nested 1-2 down so that is now the case for the bears.

For the bulls, today's gap and go looks like a wave 3 with the possibility of a completed five wave structure. So either wave i up for the bulls is complete or a few more tiny subwaves to go to complete it.

I'll be looking for a wave ii pullback to buy.

60 Min 

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

6/28/16 - EOD Update

So far the long position is doing well. Looking for a few more points tomorrow.

The bear count has this as a wave 4 bounce. However, that five wave count down will be voided if 2050.37 is breached. If that happens, the blue count will gain the advantage.

The alternate bear count would be the nest 1-2 down if 2050.37 does not hold.

60 Min

Monday, June 27, 2016

6/27/16 - EOD Update

Took another small long position today but was pretty early. Waiting to see the market's behavior around the 200 SMA here the next few days.

I updated the 60 min chart here since we now have what is clearly the wave C I have been tracking. The second option is in blue and a w-x-y may be nearing completion.

60 Min

Thursday, June 16, 2016

6/16/16 - EOD Update

This bounce may have some legs with the bullish divergence on the 60 min chart. I took a small long position for a trade to either take advantage of a wave (b bounce to 209x or the beginning of something more bullish with a wave {iii blue up. Not holding my breath for the later at the moment but won't ignore it either.

60 Min 

Monday, June 13, 2016

6/13/16 - EOD Update

The yellow count continues to gain more traction as previously posted. I updated the bull count option should anyone be looking to go long at the wave {ii low just above the 50 day SMA.

The 200 day is currently at 2015 and that would line up well with the end of wave (C for the yellow count option.

60 Min 

Daily

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

6/7/16 - EOD Update

Today I was tracking a little rising wedge/ED. I took a lil short position so. We'll see if this plays out.

5 Min 

Bigger picture, the yellow count option is starting to look more likely...

60 Min 
especially if the 2116-2134 highs hold. Daily shooting star candlestick too.



Wednesday, June 1, 2016

6/1/16 - EOD Update

Wave {ii may be working out a flat. Today's bounce may be wave b of the flat. Wave c down to come.
60 Min

Friday, May 27, 2016

5/27/16 - EOD Update

A pretty clear looking five wave structure off the 5/19 low now on the hourly. Looking for a wave (ii pullback to buy. Could also be a wave 'b' pullback for (B yellow too. We'll see. 


60 Min 



Thursday, May 26, 2016

5/26/16 - EOD Update

The wave structure off the 5/19/16 low is looking good as a potential impulse wave. Base on the primary count, I suspect wave [iv is underway. As I posted Tues, the bulls need to defend 2058.35. The next best alternate is a potential sideways move represented by the yellow count.

60 Min 
 Unless the bears take out 1810 we must assume that wave (5) is underway on the daily below.
Daily

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

5/24/16 - EOD Update

Haven't had a chance to post or tweet but exited longs I took on the pullback near the 2040 region yesterday.

2058.35 is the levels the bulls need to defend now if they want to form a larger degree five wave move higher. The bulls have also broken thru the descending channel and may now have a bullish flag in their favor. The bulls have also held off the bearish H/S so far.

60 Min 

Thursday, May 19, 2016

5/19/16 - EOD Update

The wild ride continues. I exited half my long position yesterday on the bounce to 2060 and salvaged the remaining position on the bounce after the market pierced thru 2034.

The market has now taken out the neckline and spent most of the day bouncing back towards the underside of the neckline. Hourly MACD about to cross up so we'll see what sort of potential bounce is in store tomorrow.

The wave structure off the 4/20/16 high is too choppy to call impulsive.

60 Min