SPX - EOD - 7-30-10

SPX - 15 MIN

This is it for today. The count I presented the past few days is out since there was a  4-1 rule violation. I haven't spent much time examining the squiggles but this would be the best option I can come up with for the moment.

This count implies a nested 1-2 wave up. The first set is of minute [i]-[ii] degree and the second set is of minuette (i)-(ii) degree.

Keep in mind this structure has some very overlapping looking waves and the structure off 1010 is starting to look like a wedge. That wedge may imply an ending diagonal or a leading diagonal. If I had to pick between the two, I think the ending diagonal would fit better into this scenario than the leading diagonal.

I'll try to get some charts out over the weekend exploring this option and some other options I have been keeping an eye on but have not update recently.

SPX - 7/29/10 - [EOD UPDATE]

This is it for now. I have a new channel here based on the 2-4 line (assuming 4 is complete here).

This count is out if we see a 4-1 overlap at 1088.96.

 Looks like the market found some channel support at 25%. It was a touch and go.

 A closeup here.









[8:18 AM UPDATE]

[8:18 AM UPDATE]

I was a little premature in calling the conclusion of iv. The initial w-x-y may only represent wave [A] of iv. The early AM rally represents [B] and the mid-morn decline is [C] in progress.

For this scenario to remain valid, 1088.96 should not be breached. The Fibonacci retracments as mentioned yesterday are possible targets near 1099-1086.

SPX - DAILY

This daily count is why I changed the degree labels for minute [iii] below. This is also a rough look at my preferred count that I have had for several months now, with the bullish alternate in gray.

SPX - 15 MIN

Don't you just love it when EW does pull through? If you review the last couple post, I drew this channel using the 1-3 line and created the lower channel to project for 4 by drawing a parallel channel off wave 2.

I also said at the close yesterday that I was contemplating changing the degrees for this minute wave [iii]. I have made the change here this AM.


By this count, the move off 1056.88 on 7/19 is only minuette (i) of minute [iii]. This count goes away of course if 1056.88 is taken out.

And of course if one were following the bear count, this would be the final 5th wave up to complete wave C but it may very well only be wave 1 of C. Keep in mind, in terms of Fibonacci ratios, wave C=.618A. However, C=A=1145.

SPX - 7/28/10 - AM UPDATE [EOD UPDATE]

EOD Update

That lower trend channel has not been moved. Interesting ain't it how it started clustering here into the close as I posted about this at 10:40 am. 

Of course the market left us hanging but this surely is lining up as a wave 4.

One more thing. I'm contemplating changing the degree of this move up. It may only be minuette (i) of minute [iii]. I 'll post a daily chart later to show why I'm thinking this may be the case.

10:40 AM UPDATE

Like a true wave 4, a continual sideways move. That lower channel trendline was drawn a few days ago using the (i)-(iii) trendline to help project for (iv).

In true EW fashion, price is heading for that line. It doesn't have to stop there but it does so every now-and-then.

If it doesn't stop there and it does turn out to be a wave (iv), we'll reverse the process by drawing a new (ii)-(iv) trendline and place a parallel one off (iii) to project for (v).

SPX - 15 MIN - 8:25 AM

I made a slight adjustment to wave (iv)'s subwaves. I'm labeling it as a double corrective (w-x-y). The triangular structure was an X wave and drop today is working on wave Y.

Keep n mind, the subwaves for a wave Y consists of an a-b-c structure so look for a 5-3-5 to play out. This can be viewed on the 3-5 min chart.

SPX - EMINI UPDATE

Here's my count on the mini. So far it is up 4 points tonight. This is exactly how I see the cash market from a bullish perspective.

Depending where one draws the neckline, there may have already been a break and another one on tap.

SPX LONG TERM - An Alternate Option For P3 Followers [UPDATED- Line Chart]

SPX LONG TERM

Here's a count to ponder. This is the long term count for EWI up to the end of Primary 1. (I believe this is correct).

What I propose in this count is that Primary wave 2 may have room to run in a large zigzag. This would help explain the structure up from the March 2009 low as a 5 wave structure.

Call it what you will, it may not be an impulse but from the weekly long term view, it surely looks like a five wave structure.

Now look at the pullback  from that rally to date from Apr 2010 high. It nailed the 38% Fibonacci retracment in what I still believe is a corrective pullback.

So say we climb higher in an impulsive fashion to complete Intermediate wave (C) where would that take us? The yellow Fibonacci ratios on the chart represent the length of Intermediate (A). Using the typical wave relations of C to A, Intermediate (C) = .618*(A) at nearly 1350. Haven't we heard pundits and analysts mention this number?

Where are they getting that from. This level also falls pretty close to a 78.6% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline. Though this would be considered a pretty steep retracment for a wave 2, it is not a rule breaker.

Perhaps it makes sense in the government's final attempt to support the market and this is as far as the rally goes.

Keep in mind, this is but a mere option of several options out there. Some argue where I have labeled Primary 1 as only Primary A and this rally is Primary B before a final Primary wave C down.


So if your in the Primary 3 (down) camp, this is something to keep in mind.

SPX - LINE CHART

Td12 in the comments section reminded me of a technique that RN Elliott used quite often according to Prechter in EWP and that was reviewing closing prices to get a sense of the waves without all the noise.

I believe the line chart mimics the same technique. Here is the same chart as above using a line chart.

I would imagine back in the 30s-40s Elliott did not have a nice PC with really nice charting tools. I believe the charts were hand drawn and probably analyzed on a daily (maybe hourly?) basis and up.

So looking at the line chart above. The structure off the March 2009 lows can be roughly counted as 5 waves. This is also the case on the daily chart.

Check out Gooner70's blog from today's comments. Gooner has some interesting comparisons.

SPX- AM UPDATE -7-27 [EOD UPDATE]

SPX 15 MIN

[EOD UPDATE]

Today's sideways action for the most part smelled of a wave 4 but the question would be at what degree.  


The main count shows that subminuette b of minuette (iv) is sculpting out a triangle before minuette c drops down a little further near 1110-1100.


The alternate to this is that minuette (iv) completed at 1110.86 and the market is working it's way up to complete minuette (v) of minute [iii] (this would be subminuette c of the bear count). 


The bullish argument is that the market did not sell off into the bad consumer confidence report and took on a consolidation pattern in preparation for a  move higher. 


The bearish argument is that if this is the final stages before a 5th wave higher to end a wave 2 up, watch out below. I don't place too much confidence on this though but that possiblity is there and one should be prepared for it.
 
[11:25 AM UPDATE] Possible triangle alert for either (iii) or iv.

SPX 15 MIN [10:25 AM UPDATE]

Looks like a possible flat for the minuette (iv) with the possibility of a zigzag.

If it's a flat, most like just a tad lower than 1110 or the end of subminuette a as a target. Perhaps 1107 at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracment level.

If a zigzag, c = a at approximately 1104 and .618a at 1109.

SPX 15 MIN

If minuette (iv) is in progress, some Fib levels to target and a lower channel line, which is drawn using a parallel line based on the (i)-(iii) line.

SPX - EOD - 7/24/10

Looks like the bulls were able to recapture the 200 day SMA. Though the bearish counts are still valid, my gut tells me something else is brewing besides a P3 down. It may not be ultra bullish either but most likely no end of the world scenario.

Things I'm keying on at the moment:

Bulls:
1. A close back over the 200 SMA
2. The 13 and 34 EMAs back above the 50 SMA
3. A potential inverted head and shoulders in the works.
4. Weekly MACD Histograms turning up along with it's signal line.
5. A possible pattern repeating similar to Mar 2009 and Feb 2010

Bear:
1. Volume is still lacking on the rallies (But does it really matter? Since early July the market has moved 10%. Volume or no volume, the market is higher by 10%).
2. Bear counts still are valid

SPX 15 MIN

Looks like minuette (iii) is in the works here.

SPX 60 MIN - BULL

This represents the larger view of the 15 min chart above.

SPX DAILY MAs

A close above the 200 SMA. The 13 EMA over the 34 EMA and both over the 50 SMA.

Any pullback may find support down at these levels near 1085?

SPX DAILY- RECURRING INVERTED H/S?

Three similar looking inverted head and shoulders patterns. The first in March 2009, the second in Feb 2010 and now the third in the works.

SPX DAILY - CHANNEL

The market has remained in the channel and recaptured the 25% channel. The 50% is in blue above and targets a minimum of 1150.

SPX WEEKLY - MACD HISTOGRAMS

The signal line on the weekly is turning up and the histograms sloping positive. This may correspond with a spike to new highs.

TRANS- BULL FLAG?

I posted this one a while back. The same for the RUT below.

RUT- BULL FLAG?

SPX 60 MIN- BEAR

I'm not loving this count as much but it is still valid. The other option is the leading diagonal down to 1010 and the rally up is a wave 2 towards 1150-1170.

SIMILAR INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS [10:40 AM UPDATE]

 [10:40 AM UPDATE]

SPX 15 MIN

The market appears to still be working on minuette (iii).
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I apologize. Earlier I posted a moving average chart highlighting a hanging man. I realized the data had not refreshed and it no longer applies at the moment so I removed it.

I do, however, wanted to post this chart below again. I realized I missed the second similar inverted head and shoulders pattern at the Feb 2010 bottom.

A close up.

 SPX MINI

Look at the mini. It is rallying through old resistance as well. So far, by this count, we are in minuette (iii) up.

Look at the inverted head and shoulders there as well.

MACD - CENTERLINE CROSSOVERS, CONTINUATION PATTERN AND A BULL FLAG [7/25 UPDATE]

[7/25 UPDATE]

SPX INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS

Don't the two structures/patterns on the chart look pretty similar? Both sport positive MACD divergences as well. 

The second pattern may have already broken through it's neckline but I would say the 200 SMA would be a better gauge. 

On the chart, the labels P1-5 represent the peaks for each structure. They are labeled according to their similarity to one another.  

Obviously this has nothing to do with EW but just about pattern analysis.


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SPX DAILY CENTERLINE CROSSOVERS

This is just an observation that may or may not be helpful. Since the March 2009 bottom, there have only been 5 daily MACD centerline crossovers, including one today.

Following those crossovers, I have highlighted the resulting closing highs and the associated point gains since those crossovers.

All the other crossovers since today have come from very shallow crossunders except for the March 2009 low. Notice that the latest crossover started from a deeper -30 reading almost similar to 2009. More importantly the signal line turned and formed a positive divergence not seen at any other time.

These should be consider a strong bullish MACD signal. Couple that with the bull counts (and all the other alternatives) that I have presented and this would make the case for some further gains to the upside.

Here's a follow up to this chart I posted on July 7. Looks like we may have a break to the upside.

TRANS BULL FLAG

I posted this one a few days ago as well. Looks like it broke out of the flag.






Of the blogs that I read, many of the blog's viewers are still very bearish in my opinion. Many still hope and cheer for a market crash that might not ever come. I'll give it up to them for their perserverance but will continue to treat it as a contrarian indicator.

SPX EOD

 We are clearly over the downtrend line off the Apr 1220 high and closed over the 1100 resistance level. Getting close to challenging the 200 day SMA, which will be a big test. In fact it has acted as resistance since the market broke below. I have pointed out the inverted head and shoulders that is potentially building. The 200 SMA appears to coincide as the neckline.

 SPX 60 MIN BULL

  SPX 15 MIN

 SPX DAILY BOLLINGER BANDS

Support at the 20 day MA middle Bollinger band and now gunning for the upper band, which coincides with the 200 SMA.

 SPX DAILY MAs

 SPX 60 MIN BEAR

SPX - EOD

SPX 15 MIN

A few things going on in this chart. The preferred count is that minuette (iii) of minute [iii] is underway.

The bear options and alternatives are in gray. I also placed converging trendlines arbitrarily to indicate a possible ending diagonal pattern that would fit with the bear option. Minute [c] of that option could equal .618*[a] at 1111.

On this chart, the market climbed back over the 25% channel. That inverted head and shoulders pattern is slowly forming. Keep in mind the left shoulder looks like it has a double dip so perhaps the right shoulder will do the same for symmetry.

SPX 60 MIN BULL

SPX 60 MIN BEAR

SPX - A REPEAT OF JULY 2009??

This certainly may not mean anything but just something for permabears to ponder. Here we are almost exactly 1 year later.

SPX EOD

SPX 15 MIN

E-MINI

SPX BULL

SPX BEAR

SPX - AN ALTERNATE COUNT [11:45 AM Update]

 [11:45  AM Update]

 SPX 15 MIN

Given the action so far, this is the other option given the deep retrace. The count below is still valid but getting close to violating the 4-1 wave overlap. If 1068.83 is breached than the count below is ruled out.


 


[10:25 AM Update]

SPX 15 MIN 

This is what I'm seeing at the 15 min.

SPX - AN ALTERNATE COUNT

This is starting to look like a possible triangle and if so, this is a potential count to be mindful of.

What may rule this option out is the fact that the subwave structures in this triangle to not appear as 3-waves, which they should be. However, it may be possible to count them as such.

I have the minute waves as either [a] or [w] and [b] or [x] but not completely sure just quite yet. This does make a difference because what would follow the triangle would be waves [c] or [y].

Per EW , wave [c] would be a 5 wave impulse down, which would be fairly easy to identify and would mark the completion of the move. However, if the triangle is an [x] wave, then what would follow would be a minute [y].

The subwaves of [y] would consist of a  zigzag (a-b-c) structure, which would look like 5 waves down, 3 waves up and then a final 5 waves down. .