11/30/11 - EOD Update

Last post again. Work has been keeping me busy.

Looks like the most bullish primary option played out. I'm sure many were squeezed today once above the 50 day SMA as posted last night.

Looks like wave 3 was nearing completion towards the end of the day. Wave 3 has extended wave 1 by nearly 1.618* .

The 200 day is just above at 1265. Is the market gunning for this? If this is a new impulse wave up, it certainly allows for it.

One note of caution for the bulls is the alternate1 count is still very much in affect, however, as I tweeted earlier, it is becoming a less likely count.

SPX - 5 Min

This certainly counts as a nice impulse wave up but keep in mind, there are still only three waves up or 7 waves total. 5, 9 or 13 makes for a complete impulse. 7, 11 and 15 total waves would be considered corrective

SPX - 60 Min - Primary

Notice the descending trendline? That connects the July and Oct highs. This also lines up with the 200 day SMA. Just something to keep in mind.

SPX - Daily - Primary

The bigger picture with the 50 and 200 day SMA

SPX - Primary Daily

And a much bigger picture. Note the very bullish alternate here. I'm looking for a third wave up as either a wave Y or 3 that will challenge the 1300 level. If this plays out, then 1292.66 will play a crucial role in determining whether this is an impulse wave or not since this would represent the wave 1 high option.

SPX - Daily

I haven't updated this chart in a while but today's surge certainly brings this back.

SPX - 60 Min Alternate1

Again this count should still be watched though it is becoming less likely.

11/29/11 - EOD Update [3:43 PM Update- LD Watch]

[3:43 PM Update- LD Watch]

I forgot to mention that I am starting to look for a potential Leading Diagonal off the 11/25 low. This is way to early to speculate but just wanted to put that out there. I updated this on the Primary Options chart below in pink.

EOD Update

SPX challenged it's 50 day SMA today only to end the day with a shooting star candlestick. As mentioned yesterday, is the contrarian move here to play a move higher?

It is likely that many folks sold into the 50 day SMA (hence the shooting star). Is that enough fuel to create a squeeze through the 50 day and in turn triggering some other buy signals? We'll see since the most bullish count option below accommodates that scenario.

If the bears are back we must continue to watch the alternate1 count.

Primary Options

** Keep an eye out for a potential LD here too.**

Per the primary options above, the count has the market heading higher.

The most bullish option(blue) is that a nested 1-2 i-ii up formed off the 11/25 low.

The green option has a wave 4 working out a double zigzag. Either wave x is complete, or may have some more to go below before one more stab higher.

The most bullish option requires a gap and go starting tomorrow morning or else the 30 min macd confirmed sell signal favors the green option here as well as the bearish alternate below.

Alternate 1

The bearish alternate option remains in play. I have it working out a more complex wave 4, which is very similar to the green option above.

I have included the more bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down options should the 4-1 overlap at 1215.42 occur.

VIX - Daily

The VIX closed below it's 20 day SMA again and the daily MACD is rolling over. Could this be lining up with the bullish count?

11/28/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

 I posted before the Thanksgiving break that a bounce was in store that logically would target the 50 day SMA. Everyone and their mothers was expecting this but I don't think they (myself included) were expecting it all at once.

The interesting thing now is that many folks don't believe in this rally either. This also makes sense since everyone was expecting this bounce from an extremely oversold condition.

However, playing the contrarian here short term may also make sense for now. Since there are a few bullish wave counts and a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern one could argue that this bounce may be a little higher than  most may be expecting. As always we shall see.

Bottom line is the bulls need to reclaim the 50 day SMA and the bears need to defend 1215.42.

SPX - 10 Min Inverted Head and Shoulders

If this plays out, the measured move is 1235.

Bullish Options

What's it gonna be? Blue, green or red?

Alternate 1

The bearish count is still very well in play but the bears must defend the 1215.42 level or this count as labeled above will be out.

If the 4-1 overlap occurs, the next logical bear count would be the nested 1-2 i-ii down. That option however, is a little bullish biased near term because that would fit with the inverted head and shoulders pattern above. Wave ii in this case would retrace wave i approximately 62-78% (1225-1243 respectively)

Bollinger Bands- Daily

The 50 day SMA is at 1205 and the 20 day SMA is at 1228. Should this bounce only be a two legged affair,  the next push up most likely will target one of the two.

11/25/11 - EOD Update

Nothing new to add from Wednesday's EOD Update. The market still appears to be targeting the 1157-1153 zone.

Let's see what next week brings.

Primary - 60 min

The H and S target and Fib extension is still at 1153.

Options for the Primary

Notice the red Fibonacci retracement levels above. These are based on the assumption that this move completes at 1155, the general area I believe the market is heading to.

Alternate 1

This count continues to extend. I'll take a look at the overall wave count over the weekend and see if there are 11 waves down vs 13 of wave 2 red.

Have a great weekend!

11/24/11 - HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Happy Thanksgiving. I just wanted to post an update to ES, which continues to diverge.

I have to believe based on this plus some positive count options, a decent sized rally should be in store.

I have added a 60 min SPX chart below highlighting the two most probable bull count options. Notice that the count is corrective but still allows for a move towards the 1300s.

The bearish alternate1 count remain in effect and is also looking for an end to it's wave 3. This count option is aligned more with the green option below near term.

ES

SPX - 60 Min

11/23/11 - AAPL Revisited

Remember this post? I was looking at an ending diagonal at the time and a potential 300 target. I think that was still the correct call but just a little early.

Should this be correct, the breakdown of the ED should target the wave (ii) low near 310. Should this test the lower channel (green), then 275 may be targeted.

The lower green channel target will change depending upon how long it takes to move down towards the lower channel since it is rising. 275 assumes if the drop were to occur immediately towards the lower end.

3 Push Pattern

I posted this in the chat room a while back highlighting the completion of the 3-push pattern and triple -ve divergence. 350 will be a key level to hold or 310-300 may be the likely target.

11/23/11 - EOD Update [4:12 PM Update]

[4:12 PM Update]

I added the head and shoulders target on the primary chart below. Price is nearly there coupled with the 62% retracement and the wave y=1.618*w extension target.

I expect it to provide a floor there.

Primary

EOD Update

Looks like the market wants to head for the 1157-1153 zone to tag the 62% retracement of the 10/4 rally and y=1.618*w per the primary.

Positive MACD divergence is building for the 30 min and 60 min intervals, with a confirmed divergence on the 15.

Based on both the primary and alternate1 below, once this leg down is complete, a decent bounce may be in store with the 50 day SMA as a logical target.

US markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and open for half the day on Friday.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Primary

Possible near term support here.

Alternate 1

11/23/11 - Pre Market

ES

 MACD continues to diverge.

DX

 Here's an update on this count. Will C complete at the top of the TL?

EUR/USD

EUR diverging with DX.

11/22/11 - EOD Update

Today's action looks like some type of wave 4 again. I have made some slight adjustments to the primary and atlernate 1 count.

Though the 60 min MACD remains in a buy signal and is turning up, the count may call for one more little dip once this potential triangle for wave 4 completes.

Should a larger bounce play out, I'll be looking to label it a wave 4 flat vs a triangle. Let's see how it plays out tomorrow.

Primary 

Alternate 1

11/21/11 - EOD Update

Been extremely busy with work before the holiday break so this comes late and simple.

Both the primary and bearish alternate 1 count are aligned short term. The primary count either has the corrective move complete or the alternate 1 count has wave 1 of 3 complete.

Both are looking for a bounce. What separates the two is how high that bounce will be.

The bears need to hold any bounce below 1215.42 based on the bearish count and the bulls need to bounce over this to discount the impulse count down.

Primary

30 Min

This chart shows a second way to count the corrective move down for the Primary count. Based on this, there could be one more dip lower should the labels with ? play out.

Alternate 1

EOD Update

EOD Update

Primary - 60 min

Primary - Daily

Alternate 1

DX

11/18/11 -Pre Market Update

Pre Market Update

ES

This may have been a gimme but the bounce is lining up correctly based on what was presented last night. Keep an eye out for a possible descending triangle too. If it is, it would be considered a continuation pattern here. 

EUR/USD

 The EUR/USD looks like it may be set to break out of a falling wedge.

DX

The dollar may be looking to fall out of a rising bearish wedge but as you can see I left room for one more bounce to the upper TL if the lower TL holds. 

11/17/11 - EOD Update [8:00 PM Update]

[8:00 PM Update]

ES

Let's see if the positive MACD divergence and bounce near trendline support results in a rally.


[3:50 PM Update]

3 - Push Pattern

Here's an update to this longer term chart I have presented in the past which I believe backs how important the daily MACD TL is at the moment if the bulls want another leg higher.

SPX - DAILY

A very simple view of a breakout and backtest. 


EOD Update

The market has chosen to follow the alternate triangle2 count option I have been presenting.  And as mentioned last night, the previous Alternate 1 count (which is now the primary below) is generally the same count as the triangle 2. I have basically merged the two and have renamed it the primary below.

I think the daily MACD trendline I have been pointing out will play a key role in determining whether the market puts in a santa rally. See the daily chart below.

PRIMARY

So far Fib extensions (y=.618*2), Fib retracements  (38%) and 50 day SMA have all been hit with the move down to approximately 1215.

These were projected targets for this count based on last night's post. Is this complete for the correction or will there be one more leg down to the 50% retracement level at 1184 which so happens to be another Fib extension target?

PRIMARY - DAILY

Here's a look at the daily with the MAs and MACD. I think the trendline will be a key indicator to determine whether the market has found a floor on this pullback or if it has further more to go.

ALTERNATE 1

Remember this count? I never eliminated it. I just didn't need to keep up with it since the Triangle 2 count accounted for the directional move.

Now that the neckline has broken, we'll need to see if the market can rally back thru it or see if it is rejected.

Pre Market Update

ES

DX

EUR

EOD Update [9:54 PM Update]

[9:54 PM Update]

EUR/USD

I mentioned the eur/usd triple +ve divergence too plush it has a three-push pattern possibly complete


As of this update, ES is up +7.5 so we'll see if it holds overnight


[7:15 PM Update]

ES

I just realized the red option can still play out if it wants to

[7:08 PM Update]

DX

Is the dollar working on a three-push pattern and triple negative MACD divergence?

ES

This is what I posted this AM. Looks like scenario 2 has played out and bounced so far on the lower TL. Let's see where it is at in the AM. 

EOD Update

The bears showed up to the party today. It's do or die for the bulls if they want to save the triangle. If not the market may be heading for 1215 or 1180 per the two alternate counts below.

Below are the three best counts after today.

Triangle

This count assumes that wave e completed into the close. It can extend beyond the trendline and remain valid as long as it does not break below the wave c low at 1226.

Alternate 1

1215 has c=.618*a and c=a at 1180. Notice that c=a here just like triangle 2 count below? Both counts are expected to move in the same direction.

Triangle 2

Again, this count is the same as alternate1 near term. I'll merge these two after tomorrow.

Keep in mind wave c = .618*a at 1215 as well and it just so happens to line up with the wave a low.