SPX EOD - A CLOSE OVER THE 50 SMA??

SPX DAILY BOLLINGER

I'm glad Daneric mentioned the gap at 1097 tonight. I've posted this chart several times now with the gap above there. See here.

Did anyone else notice that the market closed above the 50 day SMA today? The 50 came to a stop at 1093.77 while the market closed above at 1095.17.

Does it really mean anything? Who knows for sure but it just adds to the momentum that has built in the past six days. It doesn't mean the market can break over this only to retreat in a nasty wave 3, since there are bear counts asking for it.


I show the 200 SMA at 1112.14. Perhaps that is our next target? I have a count that would support that and more. 

SPX 15 MIN

I made an adjustment to this 15 min count. I think we may have only seen the end of  minuette (iii) and a minuette (iv) has been playing out. The structure would fit since it has moved sideways thus far.

Granted it is possible we saw the completion of a 5 wave structure we are looking at either a wave 2 or b pullback. We should have a better clue by the end of this week.

Here is this chart again. The market is also close to breaking the red descending trendline. Will keep you updated with this one.

Here's a continued look at this alternate bull count I have presented in the past as well. The inverted head and shoulders neckline provided support so far.

Notice how this bull count still implies the same thing as my preferred daily count  (which is long term bearish but intermediate term bullish).



**** If you are not aware, I try to keep my preferred and alternate count link updated as much as possible. If you want to know what my current thoughts are on the wave counts, please check there from time to time.****

SPX EOD

Four green days in a row and what appears to be a bullish three white soldier candlestick formation on the daily charts. However, from a short term trade (hourly chart) perspective, a short position would be a higher probability bet since both bear and bull counts, including the alternate bull count, indicates a pullback is due soon. 

BEAR COUNT

This count of course is still very valid. The market is fast approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level since the 1131 high. This fits with a wave 2 retracment.

The MACD looks pretty extended and the histograms are indicating a sell signal is fast approaching. A minuette (iii) of minute [iii] down is on tap based on this count. However, keep in mind the MACD daily just signaled a buy and overall positive divergence. So given that, if the bear count is truly valid, the minuette (ii) may have some more to go (higher). 

BULL COUNT

As the bear count above is looking for a minuette (ii) top, this bull count is looking for a minuette (b) top. The situation is nearly identical with the bear count above on the hourly chart here. A pullback is coming soon as the MACD is beginning to indicate.

I'll be watching that pink descending trendline, which happens to fall near 1000 right about now. Hmmm, that's just about where the 50 daily SMA resides at the moment as well. We'll see. 

Pay particular attention to the alternate count on this chart as well. I show that it is possible the entire correction from the 1220 top is complete and we are now working towards new highs. Based on this alternate count, we are looking for a minuette (i) top. Once that top is complete, a pullback would be expected, which corresponds with both the bear and preferred bull count above.

So if the bears want to flex their muscles, they will need to take out 1040. If not, my bull counts will be the one to follow. 

SPX MAs

The market closed over the 20 daily SMA and 21 daily EMA. MACD again confirmed buy signal with a positive divergence and what appears to be a very bullish three white soldier candlestick.

Just putting this chart out there again. Once again, we have a previous trend that was up, then it was followed by a somewhat sideways range and ends/is ending with what appears to be a wedge right at the 38% retracment level. To me that looks like a potential continuation pattern. Place your bets....

Last but not least here is this chart again.

Heading for that 25% channel with a solid three white soldiers. It surely looks like a good channel and trendline to watch.

SPX AM UPDATE

I had mentioned a possible positive MACD divergence in the works on the daily chart (see MA chart below) several days ago. It appears that divergence is really picking up steam now.

There also appears to be one on the 60 min as well as highlighted on the bear and bull count. Something else to think about, the market has challenged and so far recaptured the broken neckline of the bearish head and shoulders pattern. If we close above that, coupled with the positive divergence and the alternate bull count, the bears may want to take a moment to regroup. Just some food for thought.

SPX BEAR COUNT

It is still certainly possible that wave iv is working out some type of corrective zigzag. Technically, it can correct all the way back up to where I have red i labeled.

SPX BULL COUNT

The same applies here for the wave iv count. However, the alternate labels (in gray) as I have placed previously may be in effect. 

If the alternate counts are a go, we are either in a wave (b) correction up or the start of a new move higher for Minor C.


 

 SPX MAs

This chart basically shows the daily positive divergence on the MACD and several layers of overheard resistance with the associated moving averages. 

Take note though of the move back over the broken neckline of the bearish head and shoulders pattern. If the market stays above that, there could be a case for a bullish reversal to occur (technically).

 SPX DAILY PATTERN

Here is another chart to chew on. All wave counts aside. 

Assuming the bounce off the Mar 2009 low thus far is only a corrective move, this chart may be indicating a further move higher in this correction IMHO. 

I base this on the following:

1.  The trend was clearly up starting in March 2009. 

2.  Starting in Sept 2009, the large consolidation occurs before moving on with the previous trend, which will be up.

3. Since the April 2010 high, the pattern displayed appears to be a bullish wedge all within the consolidation range.

4. So far, it has found support and bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Perhaps we stay range bound between 1000-1200. It certainly doesn't appear that the elusive P3 is here just quite yet, if at all.

Of course at the moment the MAs speak of a different trend (especially with the death cross), which is down but just trying to provide another perspective.