3/8/10 - SPX EOD [9:30 PM RUT Update]

Here's an update to that RUT chart I posted last week. I added a few Fib markers in there to highlight some relationships (thanks Blankfiend).

The blue Fibs = wave (Y)=(W)
The green Fibs = wave 3 of the ED. Wave 5 cannot exceed 675 if this ED count is to remain valid.
The red Fibs = wave [a] of 5.

They're all pretty close. In the chart above, the final wave [c] of 5 shows four waves complete. I do not show it but at the micro degree, wave v of [c] of 5 may have completed an ending diagonal today. If so, the top for the RUT may be in if this count is correct.

We'll see tomorrow!

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[9:00 PM Update]Howz this for simple?


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Not much to add here tonight since this last post. As I said previously, unless 1150.45 is taken out, we may still be in minute [ii].

Of course one must still mindful of the inverted head and shoulder target as well but let's take it one step at a time first. Let's see if 1150.45 is taken out.

[Edit 3/7/10] - Long Term Support and Resistance

Back in December I posted a 20 year SPX chart similar to the one above. At the time, I estimated resistance to fall near 1140.

Skip forward 3 months and the chart posted above is an updated version. The next higher support/resistance line sits at approximately 1175. This coincides with the inverted head and shoulder target that I showed on Friday.

1175 provided support and resistance a few times. Notice back in 2001, once price breached this level, it backtested the line only to head lower. Is it possible we are seeing the same behavior again? Or do we get stuck in a range in the green zone?

Just some things to think about.

3/6/10 - SPX - Additional Counts

This is count I had been updating throughout the week. I think this still may work as a good possibility.

Once again, the minuette (b) wave is a little problematic as far as guidelines (it is approx 1.8 x (a) vs a typical ratio of 1.38)go but it is not a rule breaker so it still cannot be ruled out.

Minuette (c) is approximately 2.618 (a), which is an acceptable Fib relationship to (a). The 90% retracement from the 1150 top through 1044 bottom is also in play there as well.

Just putting this one out there again. It explains the 5 wave impulse off 1044.50, assuming that is a correct wave to count the structure up.

3/5/10 - SPX P2 Incomplete?

[EDIT]

I forgot to add the inverted head and shoulders target. Notice where it lands? Right at the upper trendline. That is approximately 1180.

I may feel bearish but this is something to think about. I still have money on that red trendline providing resistance but we'll see next week.
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One possible way to count this if P2 is not in?