9/25/10 - Bullish Count [Edit- Preferred Count Added]

Daily Preferred

And before all you longer term bears become upset, here is a reminder of what my daily preferred count is. I forgot to post this earlier.

It is longer term bearish but intermediate term bullish. I have followed this count for quite some time now.

I read on Yelnick today that Neely went bullish. Guess what Neely's count is? You guessed it, it is similar to the one above.

Bull Count

I have posted a variation of this count as an alternate in the past. Though I haven't followed up with updates, I have constantly followed it.

This is something one should be aware of. I know there will be perma-bears out there who will not agree with this and come up with various reasons as to why this market should crash based pn fundamentals, global macro and etc.

All I can say is you gotta keep an open mind and see both sides of the count especially if the G is looking to prop this market.

9/24/10 - EOD Update

EOD Update

What a strong day today. That weekly MACD centerline crossover is showing her strength.

Here's a look at the 5 min chart. So was this move higher today a final wave 5 or (c) of my minuette (ii) or a larger wave 4?

And is that an ascending triangle (bullish) or an ending diagonal (bearish) into the close? We will know shortly next week.



The daily MACD took a a little detour today but the 30 and 60 min are looking like a sell signal is coming up. On the 60 min the negative divergence continues to build and if a triple divergence were to occur, a final little high in the market would mean we see a final little pop higher.

Notice MACD has hit that descending trendline. I'm holding onto my short scalp over the weekend. Gotta run for now.

Will get more charts out over the weekend.



11:06 AM Update

15 Min MACD sell signal so gotta watch out to see if this is the top of this leg. Gonna scalp a short here.

I don't know what is going on with Blogger. Anyway, I've increased the size of the image. Hopefully you can view it this way for now.


8:44 AM Update

8:44 AM -

I apologize for the link errors for the previous posts. I hope to get that resolved later today.

In the mean time, here is a new channel based off the 1010 and 1040 lows. Notice the top of the channel is currently at 1158. This is a relevant level since wave 3 or C = 1 or A depending on what count you are using.


I think it goes without saying that minuette (ii) is not in progress yet. If you look at the structure at this degree, it now really counts well as 5 waves up.

We'll see if she hits that 1158 level or if this final 5th truncates or if we continue to see this wave 3 extend as I have also speculated.

Wave iv again?

I will also say that this may still be a flat of a larger wave 4 even if we take out yesterday's high. Something to keep in mind if we sell off, especially if we can't take out yesterday's high or even if we sell off after taking out yesterday's high fractionally.

Also keep in mind the guideline of alternation. If this is still part of a wave iv, a triangle is always possible since wave ii was sharp.



5:48 AM Update

5:48 AM - 5 MIN

Wow. Futures just popped on some durable goods news. This may confirm the wave (c) that I'm expecting today or we had bottomed on yet another wave 4 and this pop starts off another wave 5 up.

Yesterday I also speculated that we may be slowly melting up in a never ending wave 3 extension (see 8:42 AM update). We will have to see.

I'll continue to watch the MAs and MACD for signs. I'm still watching the daily MACD since it is very close to a sell signal. It is possible this could be a final 5th up without really reversing it's course.

9/23/10 - Interesting Charts Update

Opt 2

Opt 3

I'd like to comment on Opt 3 for a quick sec. The blue Fibs are extensions of wave (A). Assuming wave (B) is complete, projecting from the top of (B), (C) =.618*(A) at 1021 and (C) = (A) at 942.

Now notice the Fib confluence at the 50% retracement of the entire rally since Mar 2009. It is nearly identical to the Fib extension of (A).

So if further selling is in the cards, this may be a level to keep an eye on.

9/23/10 (EOD Update)

 (EOD Update)

EOD - DAILY

EOD - 5 MIN

I'm going to stick to my EOD post #2 from yesterday and assume that we are in minuette (ii). The daily MACD is setting up a sell signal. 

As the 5 min chart above shows, we may have completed wave (b) of b for a potential flat or zigzag. So with this count, we may see a little rally and then further selling to form wave c of (ii) and the daily MACD sell signal triggers.

I'm guessing (ii) may find support at the MACD trendline support. 


One additional alternate I will add here is that we are in c of (ii) now and all we get is a pullback to the 200 daily SMA (1116) or 13 daily EMA (1119).


A second alternate is that this may still be a wave 4.


Ok. Gotta run for the day.


(12:22 PM Update)

12:22 PM - 5 MIN

Had to step away for a bit. Looks like it is struggling to perhaps make a flat or zigzag.


(8:42 AM Update - Wave 3 Extension?) 

8:42 AM - 60 MIN

This is all starting to remind me of that rally back in July 2009. We had a wave 3 that just kept extending and we all were scratching our heads trying to find the correct count. 

That was at a time when I was a true P3 bear-believer. I've learned a thing or two since then. Perhaps we are seeing the same thing again. So this 60 min chart is just a thought.


(7:38 AM Update)

7:38 AM - 5 MIN

This may be the correct labeling afterall. As I mentioned earlier, I didn't like the way wave [A] counted.  We'll get confirmation of this if the market can climb back over the descending trendline.


Off the bottom so far, it appears we may have 5 waves up. A 38% retrace would take us back to 1130, it that occurs, it may not be a bad opp to scalp the bounce higher for a wave 3/c.


(7:35 AM Update)

I have to add that the 15 and 30 min MACD is starting to look bullish and possibly may be confirming my hunch that this pullback may be complete. We'll see..

(7:21 AM Update)

7:21 AM - 5 MIN

Well it appears we didn't get the higher retrace for [B] as posted yesterday at EOD. However, as posted in my EOD#2, I was still expecting a selloff and sure enough we got it. This certainly looks more like a simple corrective zigzag, A-B-C at the moment.

I don't necessarily like the way wave [A] counts because it looks more corrective (overlapping) than impulsive. That is fine though since I do expect the sell off to be corrective in nature.

The blue Fibs on the chart are extensions of wave [A]. [C]=[A] at 1120 and 1.618*[A] at 1109. Remember, 1109 has some significance as posted last night on the 60 min chart and re-posted below

7:21 AM - 60 MIN

Notice the hammer forming on the 60 min right on the 50 SMA. If we bounce here and make a higher high, I may have to count this pullback as a wave 4 and I already have one in mind. I won't place the labels yet because I think we may see some further selling.