Weekend Thoughts

The market bounced at the mid channel and a daily MACD buy signal confirmed to boot. The first challenge will be the red descending trendline, which is currently near 1320.

3 Push

If you are a long time reader, you have seen this chart before. I  posted this for the first time here and periodically updated it over the months.

I just stumbled upon this again and noticed that this may be repeating for the 4th time. Will it? Who knows. It surely did three times after contemplating this the first time around.

Notice that after crossing the yellow horizontal resistance levels, the market cleared their respective descending trendlines in yellow, green and red?

If this is going to repeat for a 4th time, SPX will have to clear 1292 (current yellow horizontal resistance level)  and then the grey descending trendline at approximately 1340.

One very noticeable difference this time is where T3 of the MACD  hit. It dropped well below the trendline whereas in previous instances it found support at the trendline.

If you are interested in reading about the progress of this chart since the first post, click on the "SPX Trendline" link or label at the bottom of this post or to the right of the blog.

12/2/11 - EOD Update

What a day. The NFP reversal occurred as suspected. The big question now is did the market complete the entire impulse wave up or is there room for one more pop?

At the moment, I'm thinking there is room for the latter. I'm thinking Monday should see a bounce for wave 5 up or a shorter bounce for a wave b of a more complex corrective.

The daily MACD buy signal was confirmed today, however, a shooting star candlestick printed along with the 60 min MACD sell signal so we'll see if this is reversed.

SPX - Primary - 60 Min

I believe a wave 4 may have completed near the end of the day due to the choppiness near the bottom. Should this wave 4 need more time to develop, it could easily turn into a complex wave with today's decline representing a wave a of a flat or w of a double three.

1 MIN

The 1 min chart here is why I believe a three wave corrective developed on today's decline.

Below I have two 10 min options for the larger degree primary count. The hourly MACD sell signal does have me thinking about the option 1 count below but we'll have to see if there is follow thru on Monday.

10 Min - Primary

Here's the view with wave 4 complete.

10 Min - Option 2

This count assumes the impulse up from the 11/25 low is now complete and a decline is underway back towards the 20 day SMA at 1226.

Alternate 1

I still don't really like this count and still believe it is less likely to play out but must respect it.

12/2/11- Pre Market

Just some charts updated and posted via twitpic. Please read my latest twitter updates regarding my thoughts on the fact that wave 4 may not have been a triangle and it's significance.

12/1/11 - EOD Update [7:46 PM Update]

[7:46 PM Update]

ES

Let's see if ES is leading the way here. Perhaps wave e takes all night to play out. Pay attention to the Fib extension targets for wave 5 and time target based on the apex of the triangle.


[2:27 PM Update]

SPX - 10 Min 

I forgot to include this chart along with the other option for wave 4, which in this case is a potential flat towards the lower channel near the 1235 support level. This would also line up with a wave 4 retracement back towards the previous sub-wave 4.

And while looking at that chart, wave 4 could turn into a descending triangle with a 1235 base level.

EOD Update

Today's small range day has to be viewed as a bullish consolidation. Per the primary count below, a wave 4 triangle is in the works. I believe the little drop at the end of the day capped off wave c of 4.

It is also very possible that wave 4 has completed and a quick wave 5 pop to the upside will complete this first leg up. This would coincide with a better than expected NFP (NonFarm Payroll) day and sell the news after a quick pop.

As you can see below, both the primary and alternate 1 count will allow for one more such little pop before both imply some downside to come afterwards.  Of course each count differs in how far the drop will be.

This also fits well with the pending 60 min MACD sell signal.

SPX - 60 Min -Primary

9 Waves Makes An Impulse

As mentioned yesterday, up until this AM, there were only 7 waves up. Today's consolidation would be considered wave 8, which would lead to a 9th wave up tomorrow to complete the rally.

VIX - Daily

The VIX's daily MACD confirmed a sell signal today and price closed again within the band, thus eliminating the possibility of  an equity sell signal.

SPX  - Alternate 1

This count is still valid and what it does have going for it right now is the fact that the 60 min MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal.