2/18/10 - SPX AM Update [9:05 AM PST Update]

[9:05 AM PST Update]

Yet one more count to consider. It's looking pretty solid right now.

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[7:25 AM PST Update]

Looking pretty good for that wave v Ending Diagonal that I was looking for. I'd like to see 1095.97 break to confirm it is an ED vs a Leading Diagonal for wave v.

If this is a LD for wave v the Fib projections for wave v on the chart below may come into play. Those targets are from 1106-1111.
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Here's the latest count. It appears we have a pretty good case for the wave iv triangle. It just needed a little more time to complete. So far it appears wave v is in the works, however the waves are overlapping.

Will be looking for a possible ending diagonal formation for v. Check back later.

2/17/10 - SPX EOD [10:10 PM PST Update]

[10:10 PM PST Update]

I just wanted to add this additional alternate label. Based on this alternate I have wave iv (black) forming an a-b-c. Waves a and b are complete and a move down to form c near 1093(c=a here) or 1089 (c=1.618a).

An interesting Fib relationship should be noted if this alternate label ends at 1089. Wave v=i at 1103.60, which is a Fib confluence where y=1.618w


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SPX EOD

Count @ approx 12:00 PM PST

EOD Result

Earlier today I posted the middle chart in the CiL (noon PST) assuming that the sideways action was a triangle wave iv. By the end of the day, that count looked like the bottom chart.

I did not like the way wave d formed or the expected thrust up for wave v (if the alternate was used on that chart). Wave d does not fit the guidelines well for a triangle if this is supposed to be a contracting triangle. And if the triangle counted complete, the thrust out of the triangle did not look impulsive at all.

For all I know, that count may still work but I think the top chart here may be another possibility. I show wave iv ending early on and a wave v ending diagonal in the works, approximately 3 subwaves have completed so far.

It is still too early to tell so we'll have to watch the action tomorrow. More zigzag 3 wave structures higher will be a clue.

One other way to count the top chart is to consider the triangle complete where I have alt:iv labeled and possibly a wave v ED has just begun (i.e. wave 1 complete and 2 in the works). If this count comes into play, I will certainly lay it out.

Again, this is way too early to tell but something to keep in mind and to keep a look out for.

I did not include MACD on the charts but it should be noted that the 30 min is still in a downtrend and the 60 min is about to cross down and is sporting negative histograms.

2/16/10 - SPX EOD [1:50 PM Update]

And here's another chart for the bears. Looks like a backtest of that old rising trendline, which coincides with the 50% retracement. Over time a 61.8 and 78.6% retracement may certainly occur and still respect the rising trendline over time sometime in early Apr.

[1:40 PM Update]

Just some more thoughts on the alternate count.

[1:20 PM Update] The count above certainly has to be given some serious consideration. If this is correct, it is almost complete if not complete already.

Though the count below is not ruled out yet, I am skeptical since (ii) has retraced minuette (i) by 85%. This is not a rule violation but just doesn't appear to be proportional to the minute [i] and minute [ii] relationship.

Either way, on a shorter term perspective, the counter trend rally should be at an end or close to the end and the downtrend should resume.




By the close here I made a few tweaks on my previous options. So far, it is behaving as expected. This is my best count with the alternate labels in place.

The question now is, did minuette (ii) of [iii] complete at the close or just wave iii of 'c' of y of (ii)? 1097 looks like it may be a good stopping point.

1097 is the 50% retracement level from the 1150 top. So if the count has been wrong all along and minute [i] bottomed at 1044.50, and this has been minute [ii], it technically has retraced a proper Fib.

The orange channel lines are EW lines projecting for wave y of (ii). It came very close to the upper channel, so there is a case for it being the top. However, if the alternate counts are in play, the final push up could hit the center line of the channel and still hit 1097 a few days later.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

2/16/10 - SPX AM Update [8:10 AM PST UPDATE]

[8:10 AM PST UPDATE]



My top two counts at the moment...



So far it looks like from my post yesterday, my Primary 3 option is the one to watch. 1085 should provide strong resistance as it is now and 1087 may be the target if it breaches 1085.

If c of y of (ii) decides to extend 1.618xa, then expect a target near 1092.