SPX - EOD

SPX - 60 MIN BULL

Still no clarification in all this madness but I think we may be close. That descending trendline (magenta) is close to breaking to the upside.

Based on this 60 minute count, minute wave [ii] retraced [i] by 50% (typical of wave 2s) and is now working on a wave [iii] up. However, this could still just be minuette wave (b) up of minute [ii] as well. We will just have to see what the market does.

SPX - 60 MIN BEAR

Perhaps minuette (ii) required some more room to the upside. Granted this would make for a poorly structured wave since minuette (ii) will have retraced minuette (i) by a significant amount not typical in a nested 1-2. The only options left here is that subminuette c of minuette (ii) falls short of taking out subminuette i. This count may be in serious jeopardy.

SPX - 15 MIN BEAR

As posted this AM, I like this count, especially with the way the minis is structured. 

By this count minute [ii] may be complete with a nice 50% retracement of minute [i]. Obviously there is room for more downside as the move higher today could only be part of minuette (b) of minute [ii]. 

E-MINI

I now have the mini breaking out of the little channel in what may be wave 3 or C up.  But like the alternates above, this may only be wave b up as well.


Watch out for the inverted head and shoulders. This also applies to the cash market.

SPX - AM UPDATE

SPX 60 MIN - BEAR

Things still are not very clear to me
 in either direction. Both the bear and bull counts  still call for a move down. Until an EW rule is violated it may be better to wait and see.

The bear case obviously improves if a new low is made and will rule out the bull count below,however, the optional count kicks in. We'll just have to wait and see.

SPX 60 MIN - BULL

SPX MINI

The mini is a little easier to count and may justify the bull count above.

SPX 15 MIN

I bumped up the alternate count on this chart and placed minute [i] at the top. We are currently working on a minute [ii] pullback, which is represented by a double zigzag.

I think this makes the most sense to me at the moment. Again, I think the minis is telling us the same thing.

SPX 60 MIN - OPTIONAL

I had this count a while back and modified it a little bit as reflected in the bull count above after that 3% rally day.

I wanted to bring this back since I believe it is still an option.

Based on this count, minuette (c) is in progress to wrap up minute [y] of Minor B. Fibonacci targets are below as (c) relates to (a).

SPX EOD - HANGING MAN CONFIRMED

Having fun with the whipsaws? Since May we have traded in a range between 1100-1040. That was some bearish action today but did the sell off provide any further clarification to direction? There is still an argument for both sides as highlighted by the charts below.

SPX 15 MIN

This is my preferred count on the 15 min. I knew my call from yesterday and updated again this AM was most likely the case, at least that is how I see it.

I was expecting minuette (iv) to retrace minuette (iii) by approximately 38% and target the previous wave iv of (iii). By the end of today, we got that. Notice the structure does not looks so impulsive near the end of the sell off today. I'll see if I get some time over the weekend to count the squiggles. So for now, I still like this count.

SPX 60 MIN BEAR

Yesterday I said this count was losing momentum quickly and a wave (iii) down had to begin. Well, today's sell off was sort of an answer.

The only problem is the structure itself as highlighted on the 15 min. It doesn't quite look impulsive but it doesn't mean it still can't develop into one.

We'll have to keep an eye on it next week. The two charts below, however, favor the bear side of things though.

SPX DAILY MAs

Yesterday we closed with a hanging man that required confirmation. I would say today qualifies as a confirmation.

We also lost the 50 day MA again. That is three tests now so watch out.

I don't have it labeled on this chart but keep an eye on a potential inverted head and shoulders here. This works with the 15 min count once it completes it's impulse up, which should be followed with a minute [ii] pull back to form the right shoulder.

SPX BOLLINGER

We also lost the mid band or 20 MA. Are we headed back to 1010 where the lower band resides? Hmmmm....

SPX 60 MIN BULL

This currently tracks the 15 min chart above.

SPX DAILY CHANNEL

It broke below the 25% channel.

But need to watch a potential inverted head and shoulders in the works.

With OPEX behind us let's see what next week has in store.

SPX AM UPDATE - Minuette (iv) not complete

SPX EOD 7/15 - 15 MIN

This was yesterday's EOD chart. I had it labeled with a minuette (iv) completion and a nested 1-2  up for (v). Per EW rules wave 4s cannot retrace back in to wave 1s, which occurred this morning. That immediately signaled that my count was incorrect into the close. Below is my current thoughts.

SPX 15 MIN TODAY

This is the next best interpretation at the moment. A very sideways move so far, which is typical of wave 4s.

Yesterday I provided some intraday updates and targets for this (iv). It looks like it wants to retrace back into the previous wave iv (inside the green horizontal range) as well as hit the 38% retracement.

Let's see if the 1080 level provides support again.

 SPX 15 MIN Alternate

 This is the other count I'm watching that I posted yesterday at 9:50 AM. See here. This in fact may make more sense than the one above.