3/20/11 - ES Update [10:27 PM Update]

[10:27 PM Update]

1287.75 is the line in the sand for the impulsive count down (1294.26 is the cash equivalent). As you can see I don't consider ES in an impulse down though considering that the structure of what would be wave 1 down looks to be corrective. However, if we were to assume that it were a wave 1 down, this number would be the marker to invalidate a possible impulse move down.

ES

With all the options I presented for the cash count, ES still sports a nice corrective count down that may be complete. This would be on board with the primary cash option.

ES is back in the base channel and successfully backtested a downtrend line and is in the progress of heading back up. We shall see...

3/18/11 EOD UPDATE [5:15 PM Update - A CORRECT START TO IMPULSE]

[5:15 PM Update - A CORRECT START TO IMPULSE]

Finally I came up with a legitimate count that shows a potential impulse down in the works. Keep in mind this is still only three waves down as noted on the chart.

The market must make a lower low and not break above the horizontal line before making the lower low to confirm there are five waves down.

EOD UPDATE

Is this script playing true to form? If Apr is repeating, the market should rally Monday and test the 50 day SMA. A few charts below support a rally to that level early next week. What it does after that should it get there will be telling.

One thing to note is the daily formed a shooting star just shy of the 13 day EMA. Hmm....

Daily Primary Count

Here's my primary count with a few options:

1. Minute [5] underway

2. Wave (x) of [4] is underway

3. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway.

30 Min

5 Min

Inverted Head and Shoulders and Bull Flag

Both these patterns support a move to the 50 day SMA.



This supports option 3 on the daily chart above.

Weekly

A weekly hammer formed. Next weeks results will determine if it gets confirmed or denied.

11:38 AM Update



Sorry posted this earlier in the chat room too. Another option.
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1302? 1328?

3/17/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

30 Min

This bounce was almost true to script. I've been following this chart ans sure enough the market bounce as anticipated. We'll the count I was following also was calling for a bounce.

The primary count called for the conclusion of [4] yesterday and tha ttoday would have been the beginning of [5]. Based on today's actions though, I'm not quite sure.

The alternate label on the chart is that yesterday's low may have been a w for [4] and today's bounce is the beginning of an x wave that will challenge the 50 day SMA at 1302.

The 3 min chart below highlights the internal wave structure, which at the moment counts best as a double zigzag. I have placed a potential nested 1-2 up as an alternate should wave [5] be underway.

3 Min

The inverted head and shoulders and bull flag targets the 1302 area.