Friday, April 2, 2010

4/2/10 - SPX EOD UPDATE : BARRIER TRIANGLE? [8:55 AM Update: Mini Included]

[8:55 AM Update: Mini Included]

Here is a chart of E-mini with the barrier adjustment. So far looks like it broke
above the upper resistance line.
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 SPX BARRIER TRIANGLE

I am reposting yesterday's EOD update here because I wanted to keep these charts together. It appears the jobs report may provide us with some more upside starting early next week, which is consistent with the count.

In my post yesterday, I presented a chart of the SPY, which depicted a possible ascending triangle or a barrier triangle in EW terms.  A discussion in the CiL with Humblestudent gave me the thought to present that count for the SPX. So thank you Humble for keeping me humble.


Again as I said in the previous post, even if the the sideways move is not counted as anEW triangle, the structure itself qualifies as an ascending triangle from a basic TA perspective. This is a continuation pattern so one must prepare for a higher probability that the next move will most likely be higher.  (See below for more information on ascending triangles)

My chart above depicts an adjustment to my previous triangle count but I think this fits better. Nothing has really changed. I think it just proves that this is most likely a triangle formation of some degree. Granted there may be some more sideways action if it is not complete, but it should be minimal and contained within the blue trendlines.


Minute [v] targets are still the same and the expected thrust has not changed.





  SPX MAIN OVERVIEW

SPX TRIANGLE BREAKOUT

SPX ALTERNATE COUNT



Well it looks like we got that triangle breakout as guesstimated last night. The very top chart is the main overview of the count. I like how price is contained within the channel. Minute [iv] looks like it is complete. Right on the lower channel line.


The second chart is the closeup of the triangle to complete minute [iv]. I made a slight adjustment from last night's post. I believe subwave (e) completed at the 1167.15 low. A subminuette i and ii wave have completed and iii began into the close.

The targets for minute [v] have not really changed. I'm watching for a 5 wave count up. The center channel line or top channel still look like great targets along with the thrust target near the 1208 area.

It is possible this formation may have more to go. If anything, this structure does look like an ascending triangle (see here for more), which is a continuation pattern. We have the minimum two equal tops and rising troughs. A chart of the SPY highlights this option below. Bottom line, that implies more upside to come.


Here again is an excerpt  from Elliott Wave Principle, 10th Ed., Pg 51, regarding triangles:


"In the stock market, when a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle. Elliott used the word "thrust" in referring to this swift, short motive wave following a triangle. The thrust is usually an impulse but can be an ending diagonal. In powerful markets, there is no thrust, but instead a prolonged fifth wave. So if a fifth wave following a triangle pushes past a normal thrust measurement, it is signaling a likely protracted wave."

Keying in on the red text, we should expect a swift 5th wave up targeting the thrust projection. I will also be keeping an eye on an ending diagonal formation as well.

If there is no thrust but the market pushes price up past the thrust target, hold on because it may be signaling a protracted 5th wave.

The third chart at the top is an alternate count that I'm looking at along with the fact that this entire leg up from 1044.50 may only be Minor A of (Z).

Happy Easter everyone!

2 comments:

  1. Grand,
    once again excellent charts on the triangle. thanks.
    it's very nice of you referring the humble one as we discuss the ascending triangle.

    there are plenty info can be found on ascending triangle, saying it's a bullish continuation pattern.

    i humbly pointed out the possibility of an ascending triangle, but not necessary mean i am for this pattern. you know, i am the least bullish upside target ED humble one.

    may i suggest, we need to distinguish the difference between an ascending triangle and a rising wedge. the result is completely different. worth to do some research on these 2 patterns and get it correct.

    i thought emini would down on good fri, but it did the opposite to make a new high.
    i re-evaluate the pattern, it could even better for my ED scenario - finish lower price and sooner.

    hope to talk to you later today, would load the chart when talk to you, as you are my favorite.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good blog.
    Your article serves as a reference.
    お互い頑張りましょう。

    ...my blog:
    http://forex-chart-analysis-and-a-cat.blogspot.com/

    Your charts are beautiful.

    ReplyDelete