4/12/10 - SPX EOD

SPX PREFERRED COUNT - 60 MIN CHART

SPX PREFERRED COUNT - 15 MIN CHART

 SPY ENDING DIAGONAL OPTION

SPX ALTERNATE #2 COUNT

Once again there are a few options above. My primary/preferred count (60 and 15 min chart above) is that minuette i of (iii) completed today. Minuette ii of (iii) down has begun with what appears to be an leading expanding diagonal. Targets for subminuette ii are 1190-1184 (38-62% Fib retrace respectively).

The next best option is that we completed an ending diagonal for minute [v]. If this is the correct count, the next question then is what top does this represent?

P2?

Minor A of Intermediate (Z) of P2?

Minute [iii] of Minor A or C of (Z) of P2?

As you can see there a few options here.

The second best alternate is that we are working on an expanded flat for minute [iv]. Notice the reverse Fibonacci technique that I pointed out earlier this am has held?

This may have signaled a top for this leg. If alternate #2 plays out, I would anticipate either a 5-wave impulse down for minuette (c) or another 3-wave structure. If we see a 3-wave structure down, this would imply a possible triangle is in the works for minute [iv] of this alternate#2 option.

We shall see how the market reacts to Alcoa's results and guidance tomorrow.