4/7/10 - SPX EOD ***[4:10 PM PST Update]

[4:10 PM PST Update]

SPY ED

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What's new? Still waiting for minute [v] to wrap itself up.

The best count I have for it right now is that minuette (ii) completed into the close. We should see minuette (iii) at some point early on tomorrow. If this is the case, it should be a very strong impulse higher.

There are two alternate views on the chart to keep an eye on as well.

The first, is that we may be seeing a minute [v] ending diagonal ( I have the structure highlighted by the orange trendines and the subwaves are labeld in gray). Thanks Geno from the CiL for bringing that up and Humblestudent who initially brought that to my attention.

If this is the case, the final minuette wave for [v] would take on a 3 wave structure.

The second alternate is that the top of this move since 2/5 has completed and we are now working on the respective pullback depending on what this top represents. Again, the three possiblities I show are minor A, minute [iii] or Intermediate (Z).  Confirmation of this top would be a breach of 1167.15, which is my line in the sand.

If the second alternate is in play, the type of pullback will help determine which top was made. Until then let's see what the rest of this week brings.

*** Possible trade setup :

For those feeling bullish, this may represent a trade setup (a quick scalp) anticpating a minuette wave (iii) up. A proper stop would be 1167.15 since this represents the beginning of wave (i). Per EW rules, if this impulse were to be legitimate, price cannot retrace back beyond the start of wave (i). If it does, one will know that this is not an impulse up and better to get out of the trade.

A possible target for this trade would be somewhere near 1200 for minuette (iii). Stay tuned...