Thursday, April 29, 2010

4/29/10 - SPX EOD


Yesterday was another good example of using EW, among many tools (Fibonacci, EMAs, gaps, resistance levels and etc) to pick a trade to go long on the pullback with a clearly defined stop level (1181.68). Though there are several bull and bear counts out there, the trade setup was for a high probability bounce towards 1205. So far so good. 

Currently it looks like we found good support at the 34 EMA. We closed back over the 21 EMA and also managed to close over the 61.8% retracement of Monday's decline at 1205. Not only did it close above this level but it also appears to be providing support at the moment.

I don't have access to my usual charts at the moment so I'll post them later tonight. There's really no new developments. Several of the options are still on the table as well.

It does appear that this leg off 1181 is near an end since the structure looks like 5 waves up is complete or nearly complete along with the 30 min macd signaling a possible pullback.

Based on my counts, the structure from 1181 .68 may be (degrees may be off):

1. Wave a of minute [x] of Minor B : expecting a b wave next
2. Wave 1 of minute [v] : expecting a wave 2 down next
3. Wave ii of (c) of Minor B : expecting a wave iii down next

An end to this structure up still satisfies all three of the above options and since the 30 min macd is indicating a turn is near. A break of 1181.68 tomorrow will void option #2 above but would still provide for a valid count for #1 and #2.

Should 1181.68 break, that 1170 level I highlighted a few nights ago most likely may come into play. Will see what happens. Gonna need another 2% down day first to begin to address option #3 in earnest.

Ok. Gotta run for now. I'll post charts later tonight with the updated counts and possibly other ideas as to what may be developing.


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