Thursday, April 8, 2010

4/8/10 - SPX and SPY EOD




Not much new here tonight. As posted last night I was expecting the beginning of minuette (iii) of minute [v] today. It looks like we go it so far but not without the market initially dropping first since it appeared minuette (ii) was not quite complete.

It didn't drop for very long though. In fact minuette (ii) retraced minuette (i) just a tad over 61.8% and found support on the orange trendline.

After bouncing, the market climbed in an impulsive 5-wave fashion to complete what I believe to be subminuette i of minuette (iii). It's possible subminuette i of (iii) may not be done yet, but if it is, I expect a pullback for subminuette ii that would target approximately 1180 before a iii of (iii) kicks in higher.

Price continues to make higher lows and so far higher highs. To me that signifies a trend still moving higher. 

However it does appear the end is possibly near since this is the final waves for minute [v]. As highlighted on the chart the target range of 1200-1208 seems to be what the market may be shooting for.

The third chart is for the SPY. I have this as an alternate count that also applies to SPX (the orange trendlines on my chart highlight this count). This alternative shows an ending diagonal for minute [v] is very close to completing.
Subminuette a most likely completed and now a retrace for subminuette b is anticipated. Notice how this is similar to the main count above? In the count above, I am expecting a subminuette iii wave up. But for this alternate count, I'll be looking for a subminuette c

***As mentioned in last nights's post, this leads to a high probability trade setup using EW.  This may just be a quick trade if it is only wave c, however, it if turns out to be a iii of (iii), then the rewards may be a little greater. The stop should be set at 1175.12 since subminuette ii should not retrace back below the start of i.

All alternate counts are still in play. I know it may get confusing where I may stand in terms of wave counts but check the section at the top of the blog titled, "My Current Preferred...Count(s)". There you may find my current preferred and alternates immediately without having to search through my blog.


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