Sunday, May 16, 2010

5/16/10 - SPX 5 MINUTE CHART [10:45 PM Update- E Mini]

[10:45 PM Update- E Mini]


I'm reposting this 5 min chart I posted on Fri at EOD. Even though I think the one from earlier today counts well, with the minis down over 12 pts, there's no way the above count can't come into play with a lower open tomorrow (assuming the minis hold over night) to start subminuette v.

We'll see which count prevails.


[9:13 PM Update- E Mini]



SPX E-mini is suggesting that a fifth wave down is in progress.  The nearest Fib fan may play a role. We'll see in the morning. 




I normally do not count FX but I just thought this was just too perfect of a count not to post. I don't know how this fits into the larger count but certainly the EUR/USD pair is in a corrective pullback right now. 

The large head and shoulders pattern plays well with the count an wave C equals 1.618 * A at the H/S target. That's .88!!!!


[3:38 PM Bear Count Update]


I forgot to put up my bear count. It is pretty self-explanatory.


[2:25 PM Fib Fan Update]



CLOSEUP WITH GREEN FANS

CLOSEUP WITH YELLOW FANS
Here are some interesting Fibonacci Fans I have plotted. Price has respected this fans so far. The light blue 50% Fib fan has provided support since the flash crash along with the 90% green Fib fan.

Price than rebounded into the green fans finding resistance at the 38.2% fan and support at the 61.8% green fan.

The 78.6% yellow Fib fan is the one to watch. If the market breaks above, it appears the next target would be the green 50% fan and potential to crawl higher up the fan.

 [12:05 PM Ultra Bullish Update]


 SPX - ULTRA BULLISH COUNT

I know some will call me crazy but this count above is certainly one to keep in mind as well. I like the nearly perfect Fibonacci retracements for each wave 2 pullback.

Minuette (ii) is a near textbook expanded flat. Subminuette b = 1.236 *a and subminuette c = 2.168 *a. I don't highlight the Fibs here because for obvious reasons the chart would be a mess.

This count came to mind after reading this link from Luke from the "Hub*":
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?id=99891


Should this week catch a wind as detailed in the article, it may certainly match up with a minute [iii] thrust higher. I also like how this would explain a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern I brought up this last Thursday. (The chart is near the bottom of the post).

The blue Fibs project for [iii] as it relates to [i]. A 2.618 ratio to [i] equals nearly 1300 and near the inverted h/s objective. Of course [iii] can certainly equal [i] at 1193 or 1.618 * [i] at 1235. 



* The "Hub" is another Cover It Live chat room similar to the Circle Community Lounge. Please check them out on my page links to the right.

[11:10 AM Update]


UPDATED 5 MIN CHART

Ok. I looked some more and I think this is the better count. The results? The same thing. So just disregard the chart below but the comments below still apply. Thank you for your understanding.
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DISREGARD THIS COUNT

I have finally had a moment to take a closer look at the 5 minute chart. I believe subminuette v of the ending diagonal truncated.

Previously  I had labeled subminuette i down of the new impluse where I now have it labeled as subminuette iv of the ending diagonal. On the chart above, I show that it is a clearly a three-wave structure, which to me, indicates it was still part of the ending diagonal. Remember, ending diagonals contain five three-wave (a-b-c) structures.


So given this thought, it appears we completed a nice little five-wave impulse down on Friday to complete either minuette (a) of the bull count or minuette (i) of the bear count.

From a larger time perspective, we are either working on minute [ii] of Minor C (bull count) or minuette (ii) of minute [iii] down of the bear count.

By either count, I'm expecting a bounce towards approx 1150 (see Fibonacci retracement levels for other potential targets) to either complete minuette (b) or minuette (ii).

Once that retest of 1150 is complete, I am expecting another drop to complete either minuette (c) or (iii). This leg down will be telling. If the panic low holds and we bounce higher, then the case for minuette (c) is greater. However, if the panic low of 1065 is breached. the bear count takes hold and most likely minuette (iii) down is in play.

One other count that would work (favoring the bears) , though I have not placed the alternate labels on the chart, is that minute [ii] is tracing out a double three. So picture the move from 1065 to 5/13 top as a W and the current pullback as an X wave before a final rally higher via a wave Y. Of course this entire structure should not take out the 1219 high in order to be considered a minute [ii] retrace.

Ok enough of that. I'll address that if it appears to be the structure playing out. Until then, it would just be too confusing to place more alternate labels on the chart.

Once again, in summary, I'm expecting a bounce to 1150 or so before we see another drop lower. How it challenges 1065 will determine whether the bull or bear count is in play.

If one favors the bull count, just set a mental stop at the panic low if you are deciding to go / hold a long position.

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