Wednesday, August 31, 2011

8:17 PM EOD Update

8:17 PM EOD Update

Coming up against the 62% yellow Fib fan. Will it act as resistance? It is currently at 1236.

2:32 PM EOD Update

Now that I post this head and shoulders pattern, the ED option is still very possible. Should the market selloff to 1183 over the next day or two, I believe I may still draw out two converging trendlines.

15 Min

In case ya'll missed this channel chart in the chat room that I posted earlier today. It helped ID the end of this move for today.

2:07 PM EOD Update

Here's the 30 min chart with the near term options I have been pointing out. I believe I can say with a fair amount of confidence that three waves off the 8/9 low completed today. What they represent, however, is still open for interpretation. Below are my top three:

1. Red Labels - A W-X-Y counter-trend rally completed to form wave (B). Near the end of the day a nested 1-2 i-ii formed for the beginning of wave (C).

2. Blue Labels - An A-B-C counter-trend rally is nearly complete with wave 3 of C ending today and wave 4 of C beginning near the close with a w-x. Once this is complete, possibly near the 1194 level, a fifth wave up should be on tap targeting the 1250 level.

3. Green Labels - Wave b of a wave (B) triangle completed today.

Notice all options call for a pullback towards a minimum target of 1194. One thing to note is that should option 2 play out, the wave 4 targets typically fall back towards the previous wave 4 of the previous trend.

In this case, that would be within the triangle range of wave 4 red of 3 blue. That range is actually about 1212-1195. With today's dip into the 1209 range, that guideline has occurred. So it is possible we may have seen the wave 4 blue low, but it may just trade sideways within the range to alternate with wave 2 blue so something to keep in mind.

Note also that I previously had an option for wave C blue to turn into an ending diagonal. That has since been removed because I don't believe a retrace will occur that is steep enough to fall back into wave 1 and still form a pattern that wedges. At least I don't think that is likely so I removed it for now. Should the bottom drop tomorrow though, then it may be possible.

1:52 PM EOD Update

As I posted in pre-market this AM, this was the count to watch and sure enough five waves completed up out of the triangle.

I haven't had a chance to drill down the squiggles but I think a nested 1-2 i-ii down may be in the works. If not, a w-x-y with y down beginning at the close. More on that later. Need to run for now.

6:12 AM Pre-Market Update

The market cannot exceed 1228 or the ED as I have counted below (30 Min) will be invalidated. Should the market exceed 1228, the 5 min chart would provide the next best count.

30 Min

5 Min
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