Friday, August 5, 2011

8/4/11 EOD Update

EOD Update

All I can say is "Wow". That was some serious selling today.

If the bulls are going to pull off new highs, I only see two ways that this can be accomplished from an EW standpoint.

For now 1190 may be a target for a bounce if the market finds support at the 50% retracement of the Jun 2010 low to May2011 high. 1190 is approximately where this third leg down is 2.618* the first (see the third chart below for the Fib extension).

And keep in mind any rally that takes the market back over 1295 before 5 waves are completed down will once again delay any bearish count.

Either a very bullish nested 1-2 i-ii up (which is very questionable) or...

One final wave C push in this double zigzag up.

This is how I would count the waves if a top is in. Notice how a wave 3 low at 1188 would equal 2.618* 1? This is also the same level as a 50% retracement of the Jun 2010 low through May 2011 high.

This may be a good area for a bounce.

Still watching that bearish head and shoulders target at 1150.
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