Wednesday, August 24, 2011

EOD Update [4:50 PM Update]

[4:50 PM Update]

Looking at the 2:37 Update again, I added the alt labels. A move back below blue 4 would confirm the alt labels.

[3:01 PM Update]

Ok. I lied. Here's the triangle I was referring to below under the daily Opt 1 chart for wave B yellow. We'll see. 

[2:37 PM Update]

SPX 15 Min

This is a 15 min chart using Strategydesk, which I prefer to use when counting squiggles. this may be the correct interpretation off the 8/22 low. A wave 3 is extending in this scenario.

EOD Update

I say today was a bullish follow through to yesterday's rally. Though bearish counts still exist, I think the edge goes to the bulls shorter term.

I thought today's move would be capped by the 13 day EMA, however, the market closed above it. A 1 day close does not constitute an immediate change in trend though. I'll be looking to see if the market can remain above for a few more days.

So far my count and the other bullish patterns developing is pointing towards it holding above the 13 EMA.

The daily MACD crossed up signaling a buy. Looking to see if tomorrow confirms the signal.

Opt 1 - 5 Min
At first glance, it appears that five waves up are complete. If so, wave 1 should be deemed complete and a wave 2 pullback should be expected. 1160 looks like it would be a good target.

However, it is very possible wave iii is extending. I'll have to take a look at the squiggles later to confirm. Should wave iii be extending, 1191 would make for a good target since it represents the 1.62 extension of 1 plus close the gap at 8/17.

Opt 1 - Daily

Here's the larger view. The 5 min chart above is working on five waves up to complete wave c of B. One thing I will throw out there is the potential for a triangle to form for wave B yellow. Since it is too early to tell, I'll just leave it at that.

I'll address it more later should it start to really show it's hand. Until then, I'm going to assume that wave B yellow will be a sharp zigzag up to counteract the extreme selling we saw earlier this month.
60 Min - Adam and Eve Double Bottom

This pattern continues to build and the daily MACD bull cross may help confirm this notion. 1208 is the key here.

Daily Bollinger Band W Bottom

The 20 day SMA looks like a good target at minimum. 1208 is also key here.

The bearish alternate is in jeopardy. The market needs to reverse early tomorrow if this count is to survive.

A move above 1208 will invalidate this count.

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