Wednesday, December 21, 2011

12/21/11 - EOD Update [8:51 PM Update]

[8:51 PM Update]

SPX - 3 Min - Extended Wave 3 Option
Earlier in the CiL today I was asked if my primary count expected a gap and go wave 3 tomorrow. At the time, based on the squiggle count and based on the initial EOD post today (see below), I was not expecting that.

However, I took a look at the squiggles again just in case this may be possible should the market react positively to the initial claims report tomorrow.

The chart above would be considered the count should the market gap and go tomorrow.

[5:21 PM Update]


SPX - Daily - Bullish Triangle Alternate
This is the triangle alternate that also supports my primary daily chart below. Notice how this also fulfills the larger flat as annotated on the daily primary below?

[4:43 PM Update]

I'm not sure if everyone checks the CiL or my tweets for misc charts that I post so I'll post them here again.

SPX - Daily 
 A follow up to yesterday's post.

SPX - Daily 
 Something I have been tracking since July 2010.

TNX -4 hr
The 10 year yield broke out of a wedge which I labeled five waves up. It then retraced the wedge 88.5% in a corrective fashion and has since bounced. Notice the MACD buy signal as well?

EUR/USD
Keep an eye on the + MACD divergence there.

EOD Update

The market found buyers at the 50 day SMA and formed a bullish falling wedge. The bounce triggered a 30 min MACD buy signal (confirmation needed) and the daily MACD curling up looking to signal a buy of it's own.

SPX - 5 Min - Primary
The primary count is that wave 3 blue up is in progress. I'm still looking for the completion of wave 1 of 3 blue.

The level to watch to invalidate this count is 1238.91. Should the market move below this tomorrow at the open, the alternate will take the driver seat.

The alternate here is that a wave 2 blue flat is in progress. The new intraday high capped off the end of wave b of 2 of an expanded flat.

I'm not a big fan of the irregular 2 flat so should wave c begin tomorrow, I may relabel the move up from 12/19 as a wave a and b as the irregular flat.

SPX - 30 Min - Primary

SPX - Daily - Primary
The overall picture.
SPX - Weekly - Triangle Bear

As mentioned in yesterday's post, this bearish triangle option should not be ignored and the bulls are not out of the woods yet. The bulls will need to clear the upper TL, which so happens to coincide with the 200 day SMA, and clear 1292 to remove this option off the table.

Notice that this count is looking for the completion of wave e of b blue. So far the move off 12/19 counts as a three wave structure so this count is surely worth watching.

But keep in mind the daily MACD is on the verge of triggering a buy signal and should that happen, that would diminish the probability of this count. As always, we shall see.
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