Thursday, December 29, 2011

12/29/11 - EOD Update

The market behaved as expected today, especially based on the primary B scenario from yesterday's EOD Update. Not only did the market challenge the 200 day SMA again, it close above it once more.

How many more times are the bulls going to challenge this before staying above it for more than a few days? The 60 min MACD is on the verge of crossing up so that may potentially favor the bullish count.

SPX - 30 Min - Primary
Though I had my doubts with this count yesterday it is still very valid. The market bounced off the lower channel and did so in a semi-impulsive fashion.

I have this as working towards the completion of wave 5 blue or potentially only wave 1 of 5 blue. Once again 1267 may present some challenges.

SPX - 15 Min - Primary B
The bulls managed to retrace this count nearly 78%. This is starting to look like a potential flat in the making. This is very similar to the formation I was suspecting ES may also be forming.

If the bears are here to push this down further, they need to show up tomorrow.
SPX - 15 Min - Primary C
I presented this chart a while back when I introduced the count as a 1/A up and 2/B pullback. Since then, it is possible to consider another nested 1-2 (1)-(2) up. I know this is very bullish but so far that is something we must consider or at least be aware of.

The triangle pattern overall is still something to consider and if that is something playing out, these structures obviously would count better as three wave structures.
50 and 200 day SMA
Still knocking on the 200 day.

SPX - 60 Min Inv H/S
 1267 will be key to this pattern break out. MACD ready to signal a buy.

McClellan Oscillator
I've been watching the McClellan histos and noticed that when the daily bars drop or rise from the previous bar, they tend to portend a move in that direction the following day.

The 12/23 and 12/27 histos certainly indicated the drop for the 28th. Granted this also had negative divergence.

Let's see if the histos for the 28 and 29th is indicating that the market will push higher tomorrow.
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