3/30/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

SPX - 30 Min Primary

Pretty much still looking for an end to wave (x). Notice the alt labels on the chart.

INDU

An INDU count to be mindful of.

3/30/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

SPX - 30 Min Primary

So far so good. The market continues to climb towards 1335 as anticipated.

Once again the market needs to hit 1335 minimum if it wants to qualify as a flat. And it certainly can climb higher as well to setup an expanded flat or running triangle.

At this point all those options are open. The market may also reverse course here too and still setup a triangle.

A Possible Roadmap

Here's a possible roadmap for where the market may head. We'll adapt as it progresses. So far so good though.

The other option is how to count this move up since 3/16 as a legitimate impulse up for minute[5] of Minor 5. This may be one way:

Minute [5] In Progress

3/29/11 - Pre EOD Update [10:33 PM Update]

[10:33 PM Update]



I guess I should've looked at ES before posting the 10:12 update. There's an inverted head and shoulders neckline break. Not only did it jump back into the old channel, but it climbed over it and with a tiny little backtest and bounce higher.

May be safe to say that SPX is gonna aim for that 1335 afterall.

[10:12 PM Update]

DAILY

Here's a look at the daily chart again in case you have forgotten the bigger picture.

There are a few options there. The primary again at the moment is that minute [4] is working towards it's (x) wave approximately near 1335.

Notice the daily macd bull cross and zero line cross? It may be telling us something here.

I just wanted to add the 3 min squiggles that support my primary 30 min chart below. If that ending diagonal is correct, one more little push up not to exceed 1319.xx (I didn't set the Fibs exactly but it is safe to say it shouldn't exceed 1320) to complete wave a red. See the corresponding 30 min chart below.

I have two other options below. Option 3 would support an end to this leg shortly as well but counts a little differently and possibly would signify the end of (x) at 1320ish.

However, keep in mind option 2 is more bullish and has a 3 of 3 set to shoot higher tomorrow.

We shall see...

[6:15 PM Update]

Just some additional charts that may support the move back to at least 1335 and possibly challenge the highs if this is not a new impulse up for minute [5] of minor 3.

5 and 20 Day SMA

Daily BBs

Pre EOD Update

SPX - 30 Min Primary

I need to head out and won't be able to post an update later. This is the primary count. Wave a red is nearly complete.

I'm anticipating that wave b will pullback to 1313 or so.

Ok. Gotta. Will try to add more comments later.

3/29/11- 9:06 AM Update

9:06 AM Update

SPX 30 Min- Primary

So far so good. Look at MACD turning right at the zero line.

5 and 20 Day SMA

I posted this chart last Fri and was anticipating a backtest of the cross. So far today we have it.

3/28/11 - EOD Update [4:40 PM Update]

[4:40 PM Update]

The options once again:

1. Wave x of y of (x) of [4] is underway. Looking for support at 1306 and / or 1296. From there wave y or y of (x) targets approximately 1335. (see bottom chart)

2. Wave w of (x) of [4] is complete with wave x of (x) underway that will test the 1300-1305 level.

3. Wave (x) of [4] is complete and wave (y) is underway and targets 1225. A breakdown below 1284 will help confirm this.

4. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is complete and wave (y) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway. Target approximately 1220.

5. Minute [5] of Minor 3 is underway to new highs.

Option 2

Option 4

A Combo of Options

EOD Update

60 Min Primary- Option 1

More charts later.

3/27/11 - LEADING OR ENDING EXPANDING DIAGONAL?

Minute [4] Complete Option

This is an option that I came up with in response to a comment from Kal from my 3/25 EOD Update. Based on this count, minute [4] is in at the 3/16 low.

A leading expanding diagonal completed on Fri or is very near completion. A wave 2 pullback should be expected.

I previously pondered this option since I suspected that minute [4] may have been complete at the 3/16 low. I removed the option when the numerous overlaps occurred after the bounce.

However, with this potential count option, I'll say it is back on the table as an option and given that I posted a potential impulse count for the INDU, this may very well be valid.

I have posted the INDU chart again below.

INDU

ALTERNATE SPX VERSION

This version would imply that minute [5] is an ending expanding diagonal with wave 3 of the diagonal in progress. Something else to consider.

3/25/11 - EOD Update [3:25 PM Update]

[3:25 PM Update]



Here's a variation on the combo corrective option I presented earlier. After (x) completes at the top of the range, wave (y) forms a tri within that range and completes the right shoulder of a larger inverted head and shoulders.

EOD Update

The market continues to form corrective waves up and down against the larger trend which is up. This bodes well for my primary count that a flat may be in progress.

The market also closed above key MAs (20, 50) and EMAs (13 and 34). The 5 day MA crossed up through the 20 day, which I have also been keeping an eye on.

Daily

The options once again:

1. Wave y of (x) of [4] is underway and will tag the 1335 level

2. Wave w of (x) of [4] is complete with wave x of (x) underway that will test the 1300-1305 level.

3. Wave (x) of [4] is complete and wave (y) is underway. A breakdown below 1284 will help confirm this.

4. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is complete and wave (y) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway

5. See the INDU chart below for another option

60 Min Primary

Looking for an x wave pullback towards 1305ish.

Here's another optional pattern to watch out for. Given the daily macd bull cross, this may play out as it slowly churns the weekly back towards positive.

60 Min Optional

This is Option #2 from above.

5 and 20 day SMA

The 5 day SMA crossed above the 20 today. Looking for a test of the cross sometime next week.

Weekly

The hammer has been confirmed. There have been 4 previous reversals.

INDU

3/24/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

With a close above the 20 and 50 day SMA, a daily MACD cross and a weekly candle just about set to confirm the bullish hammer reversal, I think the net move will be higher. Below is the primary count.

I believe wave a of y of (x) completed today. I'm expecting a wave b pullback towards teh Fib targets below before a push higher.

The alternates are as follows

1. Wave (x) of [4] is complete and wave (y) is underway

2. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is complete and wave (y) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway

3. A bearish nested 1-2 down.

4. See the INDU chart below for another option

INDU

I don't really like this option for SPX but something to be mindful of. This option has minor [5] in progress.

3/23/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

I believe the (x) wave flat option is in the spotlight at the moment. The remaining options are:

1. Wave (x) of [4] is complete and wave (y) is underway
2. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is complete and wave (y) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway
3. A bearish nested 1-2 down.

Last week I mentioned that this week would be telling as to whether the weekly hammer would be confirmed. So far it's starting to look that way. Two more trading days in this range and the hammer will probably get confirmed.

Notice that the daily MACD histograms continues to trend higher? This is a diverging from the April pattern, which I have been presenting all along.

I think we may know if the bulls take back control by the end of the week. The only thing I would question is the nature of the bounce since the 3/16 low. It still counts best as a three wave structure.

If that is truly the case but a weekly hammer is confirmed and a daily bull cross occurs, it would lead me to believe that the flat potential is forming up top here an if anything a potential triangle.

(x) Wave Flat Option

Weekly

Watch for confirmation of that weekly hammer candle. Notice the potential for a triangle as well?

Daily

The daily MACD histograms continue to trend higher which is diverging from the April pattern. A cross up from down below would give price room to run up.

3/23/11 - 8:14 AM Update

8:14 AM Update

(x) Wave Flat Option

The more I look at things this may very well be the primary option at the moment. Very close. I'll say a tie at the moment.

One thing that makes me think this may be the case is the fact that the MACD histograms continue to trend higher versus in April it clearly started trending down before the next leg lower.

So to recap here are the options:

1. Wave (x) of [4] is complete and wave (y) is underway
1a. Wave (x) will eventually challenge the highs. (I think if 1300 is taken out, this will be a good sign that this sub-option is in play)
2. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is complete and wave (y) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway
3. A bearish nested 1-2 down.





AM Update
Over the past several days I presented the following options that I was keeping an eye on. With today's little breakdown, I would say Option 1 is most likely out.

1. Minute [5] underway with a nested 1-2 count up.
2. Wave (x) of [4] is underway
3. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway

4. A bearish nested 1-2 down.

I have bumped up options 2, 3 and 4 to the top. The daily, 60 and 30 min charts below highlight my current thoughts. So in order:

1. Wave (x) of [4] is complete and wave (y) is underway
2. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is complete and wave (y) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway

3. A bearish nested 1-2 down.

*** Note on the daily chart I have a sub-option for (x) testing the highs, which would set up a potential flat scenario.****

Daily

30 Min

60 Min - Bear

APRIL REPEAT

This chart once again has been the playbook. It supports all three options above as well.

My apologies but there will be no updates until Friday 3/25. Should I get access to charts before then I may post a chart or two.

Keep an eye on the daily MACD histograms. Though I have been posting a chart comparing the present pattern with April 2010, MACD may be telling a different story.

Here's a look at what ES may be doing.

3/21/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

DAILY

Here's the daily view with the four primary options in order of preference:

1. Minute [5] underway with a nested 1-2 count up.

2. Wave (x) of [4] is underway

3. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway

4. A bearish nested 1-2 down.

I think 1315 looks like a good potential target near term (next day or so).

15 Min

Some inverted head and shoulders targets.

A possible path the market may take if the various options play out.

BEARISH OPTION

The impulse down count was ruled out today, however, one last option for the bears exists as a nested 1-2 down. Until it proves itself, it is but an option until proven otherwise.

This chart has come in handy. The behavior of the market continues to mimic the Apr market. If this continues, the market will rally at the open tomorrow and then close in the red.

This would support options 2-4 so we'll see what happens.

3/21/11 - 10:00 AM Update

10:00 AM Update

--------------------

My primary with options are still:

1. Minute [5] underway

2. Wave (x) of [4] is underway

3. Wave (x) of [2] of Minor 3 is underway

If you folks have been following this chart once again playing true to the script. A test of the 50 day SMA as anticipated.

Now will it continue or diverge?

The inverted h/s targets.

A case can be made for a completed w-x-y correction.

The original impulse count option I presented over the weekend is out due to the 4-1 overlap. However, the nested 1-2 option must be considered as well.