Friday, April 9, 2010

4/9/10 - SPX EOD : TOP TARGET 1228-1242 [4/10/10 Update Count Adjustment]

[4/10/10 Update Count adjustment]

SPX MAIN OVERVIEW

A SIMPLIFIED LOOK (SPX 60 MINUTE)

SPX 30 MINUTE

Back in early March, I addressed a count in the chart above, which I have labeled as the alternate in gray. See post here. Somewhere along the way I abandoned the count, but frankly I think should be the preferred. However, at the moment both work and require a very similar 5 wave structure to complete so I won't relabel my counts. 

These two counts I believe are nearing completion. Both require a final wave "C"; the preferred a Minor C and the alternate a minuette (c)

Though both are different in terms of degree, they both require a 5 wave impulsive structure. That should be a little easier to identify than a corrective mess. 

On my preferred count, minuettes (i) and (ii) are complete and we are working on a (iii). Of that (iii), subminuette i I believe is about to complete. A quick subminuette ii down should form before a iii of (iii) higher.  Refer to the 30 minute chart above for the details to this count.

For both counts, I'm looking at a potential target at the 1220 level (and possibly more as the title suggests). The 60 min chart shows where I placed the label for minute [v] at the mid channel, however, the structure may also target the upper channel line. 

Notice the gray Fibs on the 60 minute chart. It represents (a) of [y]. (c) of [y] gray = .618(a) of [y] at approx 1220.  So both counts are leading us to the same targets.

The later part of this post below provides additional reasons for the target levels.
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SPX PREFERRED COUNT DAILY CHART



SPX PREFERRED COUNT 30 MINUTE CHART

Looks like we made a new high today. Aside from shifting some of my alternate counts around (I know there are a few), my main count has remained consistent for quite some time now.

In summary, I have us working on the final stages of Minor C of (Z) targeting 1228-1242. Channels, trendlines, resistance areas are guiding price in this direction. 

Other reasons for this are:
1. Long term head and shoulders target (purple)
2. 61.8% retracement of the 2007-2009 bear decline
3. Minor C of (Z) = 1.618*Minor A of (Z)
4. Minute [v] of Minor C = minute [i] of Minor C

At this point, I won't call this the top of P2. I will say it may be a significant top that may lead to either a drastic pullback towards 1000 or a temporary pullback before reaching the 1228-1242 level. 

Near term, I believe we will break 1200 and initially target 1205-1215.  The triangle thrust target shows us near 1205. There is another inverted head and shoulders pattern developing. I mentioned this earlier today in the CiL. The target for this pattern is approximately 1215. See the 30 min chart above.

As my alternate counts and options show, the following are the potential market "top" choices:

1. (Z) of P2
2. Minor A of (Z)
3. Minute [iii] of A/C of (Z)

SPY ENDING DIAGONAL ALTERNATE COUNT

 The chart depicting the SPY in an Ending Diagonal is an option as well as it relates to the top charts.

SPX ALTERNATE COUNT #1 DAILY CHART

Should the top options fail, alternate#1 is my top choice. This would most certainly fit the price structure into the large wedge. We'll keep an eye on this one if price does not puncture the lower ascending wedge line. 

SPX ALTERNATE COUNT #2

As for alternate#2, please read last night's post for an explanation. If this option plays out, we should expect an expanded flat for minute [iv].

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